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Author Topic: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 up date 26/06/11  (Read 19640 times)


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UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

My UK long range winter weather forecast in Layman's terms and the reasoning behind my basis of a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012.

Low Solar Activity

Periods of low solar activity at present and what we have seen in recent years influence the Earth's atmosphere by allowing the stratosphere to cool.  This has a somewhat more profound effect over Northern Europe and the UK in terms of colder and snowier winters, due to jet stream patterns that block warm air from reaching us and create more moisture.  Although sunspot activity has increased somewhat this year and there has been an increase in solar flare activity, the activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be like during a solar maximum and in terms of frequency.  Periods of low solar activity such as this have future repercussions of low solar activity in future cycles and produce extra cloud cover that reflects sunlight with a cooling influence on Earth. The lack of major sunspots and solar flares clearly indicate a slower conveyor belt within the sun.  We are now in a very weak solar maximum and my observations indicate that the next solar cycle will also be weak.

La Niña

La Niña is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator and influences changes to atmospheric pressure and wind changes.  In terms of the UK this makes the jet streams in the North Atlantic stronger and therefore offers more precipitation in the form of widespread heavy snowfall during below average temperatures as cold easterlies dominate.  Recent indicators from the NOAA suggest neutral conditions for the season ahead, but it is also important to consider the current Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which switched to a cold phase during 2008.  The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variability that switches phases and lasts for 20-30 years, resulting in stronger La Niña and weaker El Niño conditions that make the likelihood of La Niña conditions returning very high.  However, any return to La Niña conditions this year will not be as strong or have the same influence on the much needed respite that we received in the latter part of last winter, in terms of the milder weather conditions from the high pressure systems it produced in the North Atlantic.

Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift

It is visible to see from recent NOAA satellite images that the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift has drastically altered within the last few years.  The Gulf Stream is basically a huge volume of heated water that brings warmth to the UK in terms of a mild atmosphere.  This softens the climate we experience for the latitude we lie on.  For example let's take Newfoundland who lie on a similar latitude to the UK, yet they experience much harsher winters as they do not benefit from this valuable heat source.

Here is a quotation from Matthew Fontaine Maury who was nicknamed ”Father of Modern Oceanography” and "Scientist of the Seas".
"A SIMPLE calculation will show that the quantity of heat discharged over the Atlantic from the waters of the Gulf Stream in a winter's day would be sufficient to raise the whole column of atmosphere that rests upon France and the British Islands from the freezing point to summer heat" (Physical Geography of the Sea, 1855).


The Icelandic volcanic eruptions Eyjaffjallajokull 2010 and Grimsvotn 2011 are important in terms of sunlight reflection over the Northern Hemisphere.  The dust and ash particles can remain within the atmosphere for one to two years and reflect heat away from an already quiet sun.  Converted sulfur dioxide emissions from volcanic eruptions can also cause sunlight reflection in the atmosphere.  It is also important to consider the currently erupting Chaiten volcano in Chile as this may have the potential to cause long-term climatic effects globally.


I therefore expect the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of this winter.  It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures.  I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit.  It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and raising awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people of society.     remember the coldest december for 100 yeres  was forcast in may the 2010 winter was forcast in july and this winter june .............

(UK Long Range Forecaster)

Published: 18th June 2011 (21:29) BST

UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
The importance of the Gulf Stream and thermohaline circulation (THC) are vital in regards to the upcoming 2011-2012 winter. I firstly issued my original warning on Exacta Weather over four months back in regards to the upcoming winter. I also clearly stated at the time “that the UK will begin to see the dire lag effects of the Gulf Stream, especially if nothing improves soon”. I first issued my concerns in regards to the gulf loop current and the functioning of the thermohaline circulation over 12 months back, along with the consequences of what might happen in regards to the Gulf Stream since 2008.

In terms of sea surface temperature in regards to the gulf stream, the diagram (FIG.1) below should be more comparable to the left hand side, than the right hand side at present.  Unfortunately the NOAA only allow you to run reports for a short time period now, hence this being the example
« Last Edit: June 26, 2011, 11:24:43 am by bamford6 »


  • Joined Aug 2010
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Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2011, 07:05:08 pm »
gosh that is interesting reading,

best get some wood cut

thanks bamford  :wave:


  • Joined Aug 2010
  • swindon
Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2011, 08:22:03 pm »
i may be strange but i love the winter out of all seasons i love to wrap up warm and snuggle up  have fires etc(i have been called a pyromaniac before) but i love to have fire  i will be making sure i have spare gas bottles in my van just incase i get stuck out


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Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2011, 10:21:33 pm »
Thanks for that, we should do some repairs before the winter sets in again...I bought a twin tub as our automatic was freezing up in our garage and I could not use it for ages and when I did the pipe split and broke the circuit board so, the twin tub is wonderful for the freeze. We sill stock up on salt as the grit we bought got every where!!!!!!! not much to look forward too unless you are a hermit!


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  • Barry, Angus, Scotland
    • The Accidental Smallholder
Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2011, 08:58:19 am »
Sorry - they cant predict accurately what it's going to be like this afternoon, so how accurate is a prediction that far away.


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Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2011, 10:08:47 am »
AND it's scaremongering  ::) ;)
Always have been, always will be, a WYSIWYG - black is black, white is white - no grey in my life! But I'm mellowing in my old age


  • Joined Jun 2008
Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2011, 11:02:01 am »
Oh no!! Hope if this is true that the Council here get their act together and keep the lanes clear and the schools open.  Otherwise my eldest son will be inconsolable (he actually can't bear not being able to go to school - he's 15!! Can you believe it!!)  ??? Hey Ho!!  At least I can send him sledging I suppose.


  • Joined Nov 2008
Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2011, 02:04:43 pm »
Planets have started to line up, My OH likes to keep an eye on things like this and I am pretty sure it has not happened for over a 1000 years anything is possible so I for one will plan for another bad winter. Better safe than sorry  :wave:


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Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2011, 11:13:16 am »
sunday papers say                     A UK-based long range weather forecaster has issued a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012.  The advisory has been issued following one of the coldest winters experienced in Ireland and Britain more than 45 years.

James Madden from weather organisation Exacta Weather correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years, and is once again forecasting record breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures during November, December and January.

One of Madden’s primary methods of analysing long range weather conditions is his analysis of solar cycles. Last week Irish Weather Online carried a story from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) stating that a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles are signs that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years.

Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results: “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.


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Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2011, 11:22:49 am »
It may only be June, but Exacta Weather’s meteorologist James Madden, who correctly predicted the UK’s last two consecutive bad winters, has warned that he believes the coming one will ‘break all records’.
“The UK should brace itself for well below average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall throughout winter 2011/2012, which will result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and will prove to be the worst of them all,” Madden warns. “I fully expect records to be broken, with the Highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is vital to start preparing now.”


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Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 up date 26/06/11
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2011, 11:45:23 am »
Thanks Gary, I don't think any of us were expecting such a horrid spell, I am already thinking of ways to help, it was difficult to find some where to walks the dogs as every where was thick ice, not only slippy but as we only have a normal car, liable to getting stuck some where, sadly we missed out on a 4x4 due to funds but at leat we will stock up on logs etc!!!
In my opinion, better be scared now and spared later!!! :)


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Re: UK Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 up date 26/06/11
« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2011, 02:43:54 pm »


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