[harmony]

There have always been movement restrictions in the outbreak and surveillance zones, has there not?

Well, if you read the DEFRA document for the affected farm in Lincolnshire:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/578789/ai-pz-lincolnshire-161216.pdf

The surveillance zone only requires records of the movements to be kept as soon as possible after the event - it seems the movements are not in any way restricted.

That is not how I read it. There are licences and you have to apply for them, meet the requirements and keep records.

[harmony]

All the incidents seem to blame wild birds as the source.

As with all wars, truth is an early casualty. It seems there are strong arguments both ways. see:-
http://www.nabu-buchholz.de/app/download/6686478163/Steiof+et+al+2015.pdf?t=1480584163

And then:-

http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/empres/news_031116b.html




They can't both be right.

I looked at the reports for the outbreaks here not around the world. It is generally accepted wild birds carry and pass on the virus and equally if you have movements of infected poultry from one place to another then yes, they will pass the virus on too. I assume that when one farmed bird catches the virus it then passes it to another and so on through the unit.


I am also sure that in some places in the world the trade in poultry may differ enormously in standards.


I am not sure what your point was about "truth" but what would be the point of saying the likely cause of an outbreak was wild birds if a unit had bought in birds from abroad and a link could be traced back to source.


Obviously, there is much said, printed and reported that is questionable and if we can't accept the reports on the outbreaks here why bother taking any notice of the guidelines either?

[Womble]

I just had an email from APHA telling me about the restrictions on gatherings. It's nice to see they've improved their communication compared with a couple of weeks ago  .

[ColinS]

I am not sure what your point was about "truth" but what would be the point of saying the likely cause of an outbreak was wild birds if a unit had bought in birds from abroad and a link could be traced back to source.

In the case of the Bernard Matthews case the EU commission rejected the Hungarian connection within a few days of the outbreak being confirmed at the plant and in this were (and as far as I know remain) at variance to DEFRA. To my mind the commission with its total commitment to free trade are going to have a considerable preference for the conclusion that wild birds are the vector.

You may think I'm just an old cynic but I was for 20 years a scientist in a 'backwater' subject that became central to the biggest political hot potato of the last 30 years so I have first-hand experience of how such things work.

[ColinS]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-38405889

[Womble]

OK, so what happens now?

I presume either this will pass in time, and we will eventually be declared 'flu free'..... OR it will become endemic in the wild (and presumably domestic) bird population; lots of birds will die, some will recover and have immunity (Would the pass that on to their offspring then, or not?).


What would that mean for poultry keepers and farmers in the UK? Does anybody know?

[ColinS]

I presume either this will pass in time, and we will eventually be declared 'flu free'..... OR it will become endemic in the wild (and presumably domestic) bird population; lots of birds will die, some will recover and have immunity (Would the pass that on to their offspring then, or not?).

http://www.fao.org/Ag/againfo/programmes/en/empres/news_031116b.html

It says "There is no long term carrier of H5 avian influenza." - One can only hope this is right (I think I read a paper where wild species were infected with HPAI (nice aren't we?) and they either died or on recovery were not carriers of the virus)

[harmony]

Hardly a surprise. If wild birds affect our domestic poultry there has got to be wild birds out there with it. Under normal circumstances who would have paid any attention to a dead duck?

[ColinS]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/20/bird-show-ban-defra-crackdown-chicken-avian-flu-exclusion-zone/
 

[ColinS]

Under normal circumstances who would have paid any attention to a dead duck?

More than you might think:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/434264/pub-survrep-w0115.pdf

[Backinwellies]

Thanks for link colins that is really interesting.

[ColinS]

Here is a link to the most recent WDSP reports:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wildlife-disease-surveillance-reports-2016

All credit to the charities and voluntary organisations like the WWT for doing the 'heavy lifting' and less than savoury work needed for these surveys. I'm impressed with the volume and detail of the work done.

Been trying to do our bit by checking over our patch rather more carefully than normal - so far all we have seen is one rabbit with possible myxomatosis. I hope that's all we see.

[doganjo]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-38405889

Just found this too Guess incarceration will be for a lot longer than the beginning of next year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/avian-influenza-bird-flu-confirmed-in-wild-birds-in-england-and-scotland

[Victorian Farmer]

The pheasants will be the big problem and birds found dead means its been about 2 weeks. You will find if it stops mild it will spread like Wield fire. I see lots of pens for sale culling lots of stock. I got rid of all the ducks and geese. With out the sales I don't see the point of hatching eggs. It could go on till spring.

[doganjo]

I've just registered for alerts on Bird flu so I know exactly when I can let my birds out.

http://animalhealth.system-message.co.uk/AH_subscribe_index.php