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Author Topic: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled  (Read 2849 times)

bamford6

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Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« on: September 07, 2010, 11:53:13 am »
Overview
A rather chilly and often unsettled autumn is expected, with very windy conditions at times, and several chances of early snow in Scotland, and possibly even further south later on in November.
 
Temperature
Temperatures are expected to be slightly below the long term average over the three month period. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for September, October and November is expected to be -0.25C to -0.75C from the 1971-2000 average.Precipitation
Over the three month period rainfall levels are generally expected to be slightly above average. Overall we expect levels to be between 95% to 115%.
September
Temperature: Close to or slightly below average
Precipitation: Close to average
First half
Starting settled with a good deal of fine weather and close to average temperatures. Through the second week of the month a change to unsettled conditions is expected to develop in the south and west, with the possibility of heavy rainfall in these regions. Probably remaining drier in northern and eastern parts..

Second half
We expect unsettled weather during this period. For a time it is may turn unseasonably cold, with the risk of sleet or snow showers over the Scottish mountains, and possibly even lower levels in Scotland for a time. Overnight frost may extend quite widely and a long way south before temperatures begin to recover and further spells of rain develop October
Temperature: Close to or slightly below average
Precipitation: Above average
First half
Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially to northern areas. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected to develop frequently, with the likelihood of very windy conditions at times. The best of the drier spells are expected in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average, but it may well be rather cool in the north Second half
Unsettled weather is expected to affect all areas during this period. Very stormy conditions are expected to develop at times with strong winds and heavy rain at times. Temperatures generally below average in the north making it cold enough at times for sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland. In the south some warmer incursions are likely, but overall temperatures are likely to be November
Temperature: Slightly below or below average
Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average
First half
Changeable weather during much of the forecast period. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average with the chance of some snow at times over the Scottish hills. Although wet and windy weather is expected at times, there is also a significant chance of high pressure pushing across the UK at times, giving milder and drier interludes.

Second half
Unsettled and at times cold weather is expected to affect most of the country, with widespread showers or longer spells of rain. During the period we expect a significant chance of it turning cold enough at times for heavy snowfall to develop in northern regions, with a chance of wintry conditions extending further south for a time. Temperatures during this period are likely to be below the seasonal average. Key
Temperature
Much above average - the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be more than 2C above the 1961-90 average

Above average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be 1C to 2C above the 1961-90 average

Close to average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be between 1C  below and 1C above the 1961-90 average

Below average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be 1C to 2C below the 1961-90 average

Much below average - the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be more than 2C below the 1961-90 average

Rainfall
Much above average - expected to be more than  150% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series

Above average - expected to be between 125% and  150% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series

Close to average - expected to be between 75% and  125% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series

Below average – expected to be between 75% and  50% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series

Much below average - expected to be below than 50% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Voss Electric Fence

egglady

  • Joined Jun 2009
Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2010, 12:32:01 pm »
well thanks for that Gary - really cheered me up......NOT!

doganjo

  • Joined Aug 2012
  • Clackmannanshire
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Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2010, 01:30:00 pm »
Nothing new then, Gary! ;)  Hope you are still keeping well, and NOT doing too much!
Always have been, always will be, a WYSIWYG - black is black, white is white - no grey in my life! But I'm mellowing in my old age

Hermit

  • Joined Feb 2010
Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2010, 01:31:12 pm »
Been blowing strongly for a couple of days now. It was bad last night so no Northboat I presume.Supposed to be better by Thursday ::)

egglady

  • Joined Jun 2009
Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2010, 02:17:24 pm »
we have a really large marquee that we use for storing hay and straw (20feet x 10 feet) and the wind blew it over and broke it last night - despite being tethered to the ground with ground pegs!

doganjo

  • Joined Aug 2012
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Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2010, 02:35:06 pm »
Two small boats have been drowned (sunk) at St Monans in Fife1
Always have been, always will be, a WYSIWYG - black is black, white is white - no grey in my life! But I'm mellowing in my old age

faith0504

  • Joined Aug 2010
  • take it easy and chill
    • blaemuir cottage
Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2010, 02:37:37 pm »
oh no thats awful, the rain has started in moray now as well is very strong winds that we have had for a couple of days now.

doganjo

  • Joined Aug 2012
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Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2010, 02:40:42 pm »
Good news - the sun has come out, wind has dropped, dogs just let them selves out of the conservatory and are now wandering happily round the back garden/paddock - whatever it is!
Always have been, always will be, a WYSIWYG - black is black, white is white - no grey in my life! But I'm mellowing in my old age

Rosemary

  • Joined Oct 2007
  • Barry, Angus, Scotland
    • The Accidental Smallholder
Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2010, 03:37:12 pm »
Good news - the sun has come out, wind has dropped,

Hope it's moving this way. Still windy and overcast but I think the rain has stopped. Caravan still rocking though.

doganjo

  • Joined Aug 2012
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Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2010, 06:14:47 pm »
We've just had a thunderstorm so wet again,but drying up now.
Always have been, always will be, a WYSIWYG - black is black, white is white - no grey in my life! But I'm mellowing in my old age

CameronS

  • Joined Aug 2009
  • North East Fife
Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2010, 07:13:49 pm »
Quote
Two small boats have been drowned (sunk) at St Monans in Fife1

i heard it on the radio,  was someone hurt or something, terrible thing to happen so close to home,

we've just had your thunderstorn Annie, quite horrible really, brought several trees down with the wind,

bamford6

  • Guest
Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2010, 08:19:12 pm »
iv been to the edinbrough festival this week end .its hard not to do to much are you ok doganjo .i would off loved to come to youre partey .still got a lot off stock .thinking off doing some think else as im not going forward .the bales will onley last till new yere at 30 pound each and feed going up .eney way took the kids out for the week end

doganjo

  • Joined Aug 2012
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Re: Autumn 2010: Chilly and unsettled
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2010, 09:13:54 pm »
You'd be welcome with your family anytime, Garry - and anyone else who comes to Central Scotland - there are a few of us here, you could spend a week going round everyone ;D
Always have been, always will be, a WYSIWYG - black is black, white is white - no grey in my life! But I'm mellowing in my old age

 

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