Valid from 20/10 to 19/11 2012
Thermals at the readyIssued: Saturday 20th October 2012 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain BobIs it time to rummage in the bottom drawer for the thermals? Any stand up comic will admit that the secret to delivering a successful gag is.....'err...mmm...timing'...well maybe that advice is perhaps well suited to formulating a longer range forecast too, as much as its 'inflections' can be correct...the forecast all falls apart when you try to deliver this within a reasonable time frame. There have been consistent indications of a cold plunge of arctic air in all the patterns for a while, the global models are now picking up on the possibility of this through the middle term, following by comparison a rather short spell for some of pleasant late autumn anticyclonic conditions. These contracting scenarios are likely to be brought about by the development of high pressure whose shifting distribution will bring marked contrasts in fortunes for the whole UK, the possibility of a very sharp drop in temperature and the appearance of wintry precipitation to higher ground in the north of Britain. The only 'nagging doubts' I have at the moment is how long this first taste of winter may hold before loosening its grip? High pressure looks set to control the pattern close to the UK through the beginning of November, so settled and generally remaining on the cold side, the likelihood of unsettled weather returning through all areas into the middle of the month. *.............26/10/12* The weather in the short term look set to rather autumnally benign in character....beneath or close to the influence of high pressure it'll be settled, variable cloud amounts will limited the distribution of sunshine, but where this does appear it'll be pleasant enough, where it and misty or foggy conditions persist it'll be cooler and dull, chillier here in comparison to the brighter areas benefiting from late autumn sunshine. Towards the end of the period, high pressure is likely to drift away and allow developments to take place to the north and east which brings the potential for a marked change in both temperature and characteristic as polar air begins to seep southward, turning colder everywhere with some wintry showers appearing across northern high ground, frost becoming widespread overnight. *27/10/12......05/11/12* It is here that the arrival of colder polar originated air penetrates southward across the bulk of the UK, wintry showers across northern high ground, perhaps at times appearing on lower elevations in the heaviest outbreaks. Rain and rather cool conditions for a time across much of England and Wales, pressure then recovers and the whole UK becomes drier and brighter, sunny spells and a distinctly chilly feel to the weather by day. Overnight with clear skies and light winds conditions are ripe for the formation of frost and fog, this slow to clear through some central areas where it'll remain dull, overcast and rather cold, mainly dry with sunny spells appearing across sheltered southern areas of England.
Topic: Snow in October ! (Read 9117 times)
