Friday should see the weather gradually improving, with lighter winds and fewer showers developing, although in southern coastal counties there is the risk of outbreaks of rain at times. Temperatures will be around the average in the south, but on the cold side in northern regions.
The weekend sees the generally unsettled pattern continue, with the chance of further outbreaks of rain in parts of the south, and showers in northern regions which are likely to be wintry over higher ground.
Developments next week are looking very interesting, with increasing indications from the computer models that pressure will rise to the north of Britain, either over Greenland or Scandinavia. This suggests the chances of a more sustained wintry outbreak affecting the country this month are increasing, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if even southern Britain saw some snow before the end of November Following back to back cold winters for much of the UK, there is a lot of focus whether this year will follow suit. However, with temperatures forecast to be close to or slightly below average, we believe the most significant aspect of this winter will be the very much below average winter rainfall following on the back of a largely dry summer for parts of the UK and very likely dry spring to follow.
Headline Summary:
Anomalously cold ocean temperatures in the Tropical Pacific or ‘La Nina’ conditions have become well established. There is a high probability that these conditions will intensify over the coming months and become one of the strongest La Ninas on record.
With a strong coupling between the atmosphere and ocean signal, global weather patterns are very likely to be ‘forced’ by a strong La Nina with dominant high pressure centres in the northern Pacific and in the North Atlantic.
La Nina winters have a variable influence on the weather in Europe although we anticipate no sustained extremes of cold and the emphasis on dry, settled weather. Some wintry weather is however expected, particularly during mid to late December an early January.
Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average with the coldest weather (relative to long term averages) centred over France and Iberia, the south-east of the UK closest to this cold. Compared to many winters of the last two decades, this coming winter would probably be regarded as cold although not of the same degree as last year or 2008/9
Topic: Mixed weekend, wintry outbreak later in the month southern Britain saw some snow (Read 4027 times)