[Herdygirl]

Is there not also a theory (I must declare here that I failed my history O level) that there was a huge volcanic eruption which kept the sunlight away for a couple of years?  That coupled with the reduction in population after the Black Death would be bound to have a huge impact.

Possibly the eruption of Krakatoa?

The one everyone talks about was in 1883 or thereabouts, but it does seem to go off frequently. Is that the one which is suspected of causing the two years with no sun?  In medieval times though would people have known what was causing the problem.  There are lots of huge volcanoes which are potential suspects.  I'm still scratching my head to remember the chief suspect, but you're probably right.

I must admit this has always puzzled me so I have done a bit of digging - the Great Famine of 1315-1322 was caused by poor weather resulting in bad harvests.  There has been some work published in 2013 that points to another factor ie drought.  The article argues that years of a mixture of poor weather, heavy rain, low temperatures followed by drought caused severe outbreaks of disease, animal and human.  I have yet to find evidence of volcanic activity but that doesn't rule it out.

[PK]

This might have been what Fleecwife had in mind:-
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/aug/05/medieval-volcano-disaster-london-graves

Going at bit off topic now...

[Marches Farmer]

But an interesting diversion, methinks.  Just read the article - eight times more powerful than Krakatoa so probably ripped apart whatever volcanic island(s) caused it.

[Fleecewife]

Thanks PK, that's the one 


I mentioned these awful events initially to help put our current woes into perspective.  Imagine living during such a mass disaster     But without our current global communication pathways, the population would never have known such events were worldwide.

[Dave C]

Watched "Winterwatch" on BBC 2 the other night.

Would this not be the time for the BBC to discuss Bird Flu ?

[doganjo]

But not impossible - BBC News, Sky News, Facebook, Twitter.  We are told almost every word uttered by that maniac so I'm damned sure twitter wpuld have worked!

What maniac?
[/quote]You really need me to tell you?  You don't watch the news?  Not what is going on in other countries?    A very well reported person regularly tweets his opinions.

[ColinS]

More bad news I'm afraid:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-38739112

Note the BBC put it on the regional page of the website again. 

To be fair they did put it out on the Radio 2 news at 10pm - it will be interesting to see if they still have it on there tomorrow morning when 'important' people might hear it.

And now a new strain (H5N5) in Germany:-

http://www.dw.com/en/new-bird-flu-sub-type-found-on-turkey-farm-in-germany/a-37251542

So where did that come from? And here an article again showing how the 'experts' are completely divided on the mechanism of spread:-

http://www.dw.com/en/bird-flu-will-continue-to-flare-into-2017/a-36979225

[Louise Gaunt]

Bird flu did reach radio 4 this morning, but they interviewed a virologist, who,talked about how birds are the source of human flu, how wild birds transmit the virus, BUT no mention of any of the DEFRA policies on protecting the nations domestic flocks. He did state that the virus gets a hold in large domesticated flocks, I got he impression he was against keeping domesticated hens. Such a missed opportunity because radio 4 chose wrong expert ( in my experience not an unusual occurrence, but that is another story and probably not for her!)

[YorkshireLass]

More bad news I'm afraid:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-38739112

A small note but... Please stop putting "expert" in quote marks.
Virology is damn difficult! There are many things we don't understand. Mocking or deriding the scientists doing their best is how we end up with a president declaring that climate change is rubbish, and silencing knowledgeable people and actual experts who dare disagree with him.
 

Note the BBC put it on the regional page of the website again. 

To be fair they did put it out on the Radio 2 news at 10pm - it will be interesting to see if they still have it on there tomorrow morning when 'important' people might hear it.

And now a new strain (H5N5) in Germany:-

http://www.dw.com/en/new-bird-flu-sub-type-found-on-turkey-farm-in-germany/a-37251542

So where did that come from? And here an article again showing how the 'experts' are completely divided on the mechanism of spread:-

http://www.dw.com/en/bird-flu-will-continue-to-flare-into-2017/a-36979225

[ColinS]

A small note but... Please stop putting "expert" in quote marks.

I have a Ph.D, was in academia for 20 years and have been a consultant for the subsequent 20+ years so in my field count as one of the experts for which you have such reverence. Sadly, I have to say that your faith is, in many cases, sadly misplaced. In this case we are given a clear vision of how diametrically opposing views are being voiced (as we also have with the “burnt toast” saga between the FSA, the EFSA,  Cancer Research UK and the Winton Centre) but in others we don't see the extent to which an expert view is a matter of opinion as much as a matter of hard fact.

Science was perhaps never as pure and fair-minded as I and many others who went into it would like to believe (e.g. Newton vs Hooke) but the environment for such purity has got a lot worse within my lifetime. The best of my former colleagues would never be used by the media as they would always hedge their opinions around with the necessary caveats and that would never do in a world of tweets.

So sorry, I think I have earned the right to put “expert” in quotes where I feel it is needed.

[Marches Farmer]

I see France has started pre-emptive culling in the south west, where they've identified it's spread farm-to-farm.  158 outbreaks and it's been found in farms where no deaths have so far been reported. 

[in the hills]

My daughter likes to look at the ex batt FB page.

Someone posted on there  that they have had DEFRAs vets there this morning to check their hens and their pens. Wearing full suit and mask. Used disinfectant before entering.

They are in the Protection Zone.

Seems odd that no reinforcement of the guidelines is taking place outside of these areas. I feel like a fruit cake with mine all in and everyone elses running out!

Looking at all these pheasants with suspicion!

[harmony]

Preesall is on a river and the surrounding area sees hundreds of geese grazing on farmland. Not a good sign.

[Penninehillbilly]

Just followed a link to Wikipedia. Really interesting reading.  One passage says backyard poultry were less likely to get it than the commercial units, (as I read it) because of genetic weakness (inbreeding? ), biosecurity, and others I can't remember.

[harmony]

Just followed a link to Wikipedia. Really interesting reading.  One passage says backyard poultry were less likely to get it than the commercial units, (as I read it) because of genetic weakness (inbreeding? ), biosecurity, and others I can't remember.

Anything free ranging is perhaps more likely to build up a resistance and the large units will have delivery vehicles going from one farm to another,  so I can see that backyard flocks may be less likely to get it but also in large units the spread will be so quick and less likely to be "ignored" than someone with a couple of hens who might put their deaths down to bad luck.