[kevkev57]

I had an interesting conversation with an old friend yesterday. She works in Brussels for the Belgian health authority. She is part of a team that is preparing for the possibility of a full blown flu disaster later this year. This is not a EU wide thing but for Belgium only.

Interestingly her work is more slanted to dealing with the after effects and not the actual flu.  The official word is ' go have a flu jab ' all is ok. Unofficially its seen as a hopeless senario , with widespread chaos, and huge death figures ASSUMING that the second wave of flu is the nasty one, as in the 1918 Spanish flu.

She seems to spend most of her day searching for body bags to buy, and renting freezer truck units from 1st September  The army are also being brought into play, for control of movement and body disposal. Disused gov buildings are being re opened as temporary morgues and make shift hospitals. Non urgent operations are being scaled down from September to free up staff.

She does stress that this is planning only, but she also feels that there is a sense of urgency that she has not experienced before.


I only went to Brussels to catch up with friends and have a laugh !!!!
Kevin

[sausagesandcash]

Good to know though....Rustyme and room in the bunker for a family of six? Time to load up on canned food................

[rustyme]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5257719/Swine-Flu-Inflatable-mortuaries-and-express-funerals-planned-for-flu-pandemic.html

hello Kevin ,
                 yes as you can see in the link above , the same sort of thing has been going on here in the UK . I was speaking to someone the other day , who's brother in-law is a funeral director, and they said that he had been contacted direct by a government official , and asked  what preparations he had made , ie containers/chiller units for bodies,  he said he had arranged for 3 container units from his brother , who is a haulage contractor. The gov official said to at least double the capacity and to apply for an adequate number of body bags ?     I did have another, government site, with newer information on , but it has been pulled ?  The conversation with the gov official, was very much on the lines of WHEN not IF , and to expect from  50%-75%  infection and up to 50% (of those figures ) fatalities . I know both these people and neither are liars or exaggerators. ( Similar preps to this went on before the first outbreak of foot and mouth , huge holes being dug and lorry loads of pallets and old telegraph poles taken to these sites and stored some six months before the outbreak !!!! Then, out of nowhere, Foot and Mouth ) It would seem they are petrified of letting on ,exactly what is going on !
     Sadly, I don't really have a bunker ( to much like a grave for my liking ) , but as for the tinned food , I keep at least three months basic supply anyway . This I use on a  rotor system, so it never gets too old . I also have about the same quantity of dried stuff ie pasta etc. This isn't done because I think the world is near collapse ( although it may well be !!) but as my money supply is very limited and can stop at any time without notice for anything from a day to however long ? Well without food I  die , so I keep a good supply 'Just In case' ! I may increase this to a six month supply nearer the autumn , it is only a few boxes in the shed, and that way I would have enough to get through winter and into the next growing season. Sounds like totally loony tunes stuff, but I eat it anyway and I was a boy scout ( always be prepared !!) .

cheers

Russ

[rustyme]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090630/tuk-warning-over-swine-flu-parties-6323e80.html

I wondered when something like this would happen , although I didn't expect it to be with kids !!!

[smiffy]

what concerns me is the governments silence.

in the past they would have used swine flu or similar events to take the heat off what they are up to. Getting the population in a panic about swine flu could remove the heat re expences.........

they are strangly quiet on the swine flu front

[rustyme]

I see the government are now saying that it is possible , with the cases of swine flu doubling each week as they are , for there to be 100,000 cases of swine flu per day by the end of August. I did the sums on the death rate so far in the UK (which was 3 out of 7,500 at the time ) and it worked out that that would mean there would be a possible death rate of some 40 per day out of 100,000. The figures also work out that it would take about 7 weeks from the end of August for the whole population to get infected . The figures also work out that there would be a possible 400 deaths per million and therefore 24,000 deaths out of a 60 million population. This is about double the amount of deaths from a normal flu over a year . It doesn't take into account the fact that a normal flu may also appear and wipe out the normal quota, or that swine flu may well ( as some expect it to ) mutate into a different form and become more, or less virulent.
      It appears that swine flu is becoming anti viral resistant in some countries, including the UK . For the main population , this may not be that bad a thing at the moment . However we don't know how much effect the anti virals have had , helping people to recover . This may change though, if the virus were to become more virulent over the autumn and winter . It is also unknown if it does mutate, and become more virulent ,what effect  the vaccine will have ? which is based on the virus as it was a few weeks ago .   Fingers crossed it will stay as it is now , and it will be mainly, an unpleasant illness for most that get it , but not much more . There will, sadly ,  be more deaths, but that is the nature of these things . 

Russ

[sausagesandcash]

You're reading such negativity into things Russ......now if you were a politician you'd have a much more positive spin on things....unemployment set to fall. Personally I think you're right, there's a storm a comin', but we are helpless by in large. I know that if it does hit my kids won't be going to school and we'll be sourcing all we can eat from the surrounding farms, and from a pantry and three freezers of food. We won't be going shopping, and we won't be leaving our locality in the hope that it might help. Here's hoping that it'll all just blow over.

[rustyme]

me negative ? .. never .... . I was thinking about the unemployment figures ...and the waiting lists for hospitals etc .....and the housing market ....mmmmm ? NO .. not even going there ... Yes if things get bad it will be difficult to avoid . There is another case near me , well about 8 miles or so . The other case being 12 miles away, but in my nephews, half sisters play school . She had tamiflu in case,  but seems to be ok , thank god, she is only 3 and only has one working kidney !!. The thing is if it is spreading as fast as they think it is , we won't know who has it, till they have given it to loads of others .  I know by reading my posts it seems as if I am thinking of nowt else , but I really am only keeping an eye on the situation as it continues to spread. As you say mate , lets hope it all blows over .   
    Ebola next ......thats been sitting in the wings for some time now ....it turns you insides into soup before you die.....

cheers

Russ

[Roxy]

I have a friend who works in the management side of a hospital, and she asked if I had seen all the containers lined up outside the hospital.  Yes, asks innocent me, what are they for?  She said they are for all the extra bodies expected from the swine flu as the mortuary they have will not be able to cope.  Ooh.....says I.  Not sure if I should be pleased they are taking action, or getting worried!!!

[sausagesandcash]

Be careful Russ, they say ya make the best soup in old pots !!  I'm a sprightly 38 

[rustyme]

lol.. yeah ...cheers mate ... how does that old 10cc song go ...'life is a minestrone'  , go on, now tell me you are too young to remember it !!!!!!
        One thing I thought of earlier if things do go iffy , and you like me, will be keeping well away from people in general , well what about mail ? letters , parcels etc ...I know the postman can leave them in a box or bin or whatever , but what if the person who sent it has swine flu ...They will have licked the envelope ? There are so many things you just don't think of , might be an idea to start ? lol.

cheers

Russ