[Cavendish]

Angela Merkel is playing a dangerous game, she is trying to do what Boneparte and Hitler tried to do with force but failed. why would the eu failed if the euro failed? it seemed to be doing fine before the euro came along, and it would do fine without it again, this is enormous scare mongering to set germany up as the lead state in a unified federal europe, which I for one would oppose with all my strength.

keep the EU but do we really need tighter fiscal union, federal europe is what it will become if we went down that road, let the likes of Greece fail and return to it's native currency, it should not have been allowed to join in the first place.

[RUSTYME]

This is exactly what the eu is about , total control . It has been the main aim since it began . If you look back at the leaders who set it up , they even said so . The German leadership will try it's utmost to gain complete control , even using the threat of war !
 Still , Cameron can repatriate powers to the Uk , what a load of shite that is , what powers ?
The only ones that toss pot could get back are those that Merkel decided to give .
 The total control that the EU/Germany  is now openly after , as i said , is what the EU is about ,  and finally , people are starting to realize this .   Lets hope the awakening isn't too late !
 Libyans at least had some weapons , plus the no fly zone !! , what would we have ? Who would help us ?     

[deepinthewoods]

 i heard portillo last night ,hinting that the recent explosions at various iranian military sites, one, he mentioned, had killed 17 iranian troops, signalled the start of an iranian 'solution', this, coupled with the diplomatic expulsions today, suggest a deep british involvment in the, i believe, imminent iranian regime change.
 i think the now obvious european re-negotiation of the treatise, is just the distraction. We're going to war again.

[Fowgill Farm]

DITW thats exactly what i thought the news is being wound up to a crescendo against Iran so we can go do to them what has been done in both Iraq & Afghanistan, The US has always wanted to stuff Iran and i think they're using the British govt to kick it all off. Call me cynical but its coming, i fell so sorry for our poor armed forces who are stretched as it is, off to order the army wives single now, lets hope they all get home safe for xmas.
Europe don't get me started germany once again is sabre rattling but i don't think it will amount to much thye're just sh@@ting bricks becoz they're knacker deep in loans for the euro.
Mandy

[waterhouse]

The Iran situation is a bit of a red herring in the currency hoohaa.  With both Bush and Blair gone no-one has the money or interest in a shooting match with Iran cos it would be very messy.  That is except Israel who should not be underestimated.   Fact is that the Arab states are all worried by Iran but won't/can't do anything except squabble until something kicks off.  Russia has been playing an interesting game of supporting Iran as the main actor in destabilising western interests. 

Sovereign debt isn't like commercial debt because taking territory by force isn't a solution any more.  Until very recently any bank which lent to or bought bonds issued by an OECD country didn't need to hold capital against them because the regulators said OECD countries were risk free.  Banks have to hold the increasingly large amounts of capital they're required to have as investments in something, generally their own country's bonds, but if they operate in lots of countries it makes sense to invest in other governments as well.  Or it did, and certainly to the regulators.

There is no mechanism for the Euro to unwind, collapse or fire a member.  Booting out Greece would be technically straightforward. Mrs Merkel calls a press conference at 0700 and announces that Greece left last night.  That will be the first the Greeks have heard of it, and whilst illegal it would be a case of "yeah right, sue me".   But Greek bonds would be valueless immediately so all the banks, pension funds and so on holding the crap would have to write-off 100%.  Painful but not terminal, and you can be certain someone's already printed a big stock of Drachma notes in case.  However that doesn't work for Italy.  The scale is too large.  A pile of banks/pension funds/insurance companies would go bust because of the bond default, and a larger pile of the same would go bust because of their exposure to the first lot of banks etc. Northern Rock's place in history would then merely be as the first of hundreds.

Banks go bust because of liquidity, or rather the lack of it. When you keep money in a current or savings account you generally have access to it on demand.  The bank, however, lends it out to people for much longer terms.  The mis-match works because people don't take their money out, they leave it there so they can pay bills etc.  It's only when they all decide together to remove their dosh that there's a problem.  In the Rock's case they also borrowed on scale from the money markets who don't need to queue around the block to ask for their cash back.

The current financial crash actually started in January 2007 when HSBC announced a big problem with mortgage lending in the States.   Because HSBC is seriously big (and quite good at risk) nobody worried about them (correctly as it happens).  That was the earthquake that started the tidal wave that took 18 months to get noticed.  But Fred Goodwin was lobbying Alastair Darling at Xmas 2007 about liquidity.  Mind you the stupid bugger had already bought ABN by that point.   So they knew the wheels were coming off a full year before it happened and the FSA as regulator merely invested in sleeping tablets.  Btw, anybody else notice that Goodwin's initials are FAG?  Not as funny as Boris Johnson's, perhaps, but rather more culpable.  Is he still living in Edinburgh?

[RUSTYME]

Well the rhetoric has been quietly uped  , with  mention of live amunition being used to protect life in certain arson cases .  Much more to that than it would seem at first .
 But it does come in time for 2012 . A whole load of banks are set to go down the pan , on a huge scale .  The scale of these collapses are far bigger than anything so far .   Spain looks set to be the starting place , but a number of countries could get there first .   
 So , armed forces readying for civil unrest , the police being part of it too ,   the euro about to collapse anytime  , what will be the result ?  , and when will tshtf ? 
 2012 , olympics year ! , mmmm , 13,000 armed troops in London , plus the RAF ready for action at Northolt airport  ( i grew up right next to it ), plus the 20,000 ? Police , also armed ? And the 23,000 security people , the clues are there !
 I might get a tv so i will at least know if tshtf !   

Cheers Russ

[Castle Farm]

And there was me thinking this site was about smallholding 

[Crofter]

If this lot kicks off, Life will be about smallholding!!

[deepinthewoods]

so now the british police will be able to use live rounds against arsonists, as well as baton rounds and water cannons.
 proof if needed that the riots were provoked for a reason.
im having trouble believing that you can now be shot dead in britain for throwing a molly!
thats my saturday nights ruined

[yankieGirl]

for throwing a molly!

What is a molly?

[robert waddell]

Molotov cocktail

[waterhouse]

The European Central Bank has just opened the money taps, but only to the banks.  So the banks shouldn't go bust but the countries in which they are based still might.

How that works is a mystery

[deepinthewoods]

498 billion, i think today, low interest over 3 years, i think.
well someones gotta pay for xmas

[RUSTYME]

Seems like they are getting desperate , but still not doing enough .    Still when tshtf properly , it looks like they are just going to shoot us all anyway !   Time to ready the mollies ! Mind you , how much is petrol now  £1.40 ish a ltr ? Cheaper to buy an ak47 .  Think i will just hide on my bit of land and shoot any  f**ker who steps foot on it , with my long bow,
 

[ecohun]

Strangely enough I was just thinking I must get my own long bow though perhaps I might be better with the Hungarian sort, composite and designed for use on horseback, at least I know I can use one of those. However, there is a a set of plans on Instructables for making your own long bow.

Alan