As Fleecewife says. Plus, your vaccinated sheep can infect your neighbours' unvaccinated sheep...
To answer the OP's original question... Orf is most likely to appear in the summer when the lambs start experimenting with eating foliage and the thistles are there with their prickles ready to break the skin on questing young noses... But it can appear pretty much anytime, and will do if the sheep are struggling. If this 'orrid weather continues and ewes struggle to produce enough milk, that would be the ingredients for a horrid outbreak...
We discuss orf every year;
here's a post in which I listed some other posts and threads you may want to read.
Last year we vaccinated most of our lambs, having had an increasing problem with orf over the previous few years. We had no cases of orf in the batches we vaccinated. Mind, we only had a very little orf in the unvaccinated lambs last year too. If you do vaccinate, please tell your neighbours beforehand. And the trick is to make very very certain that the skin is broken and the vaccine enters the subcutaneous tissues through the broken skin. We find that the trick is to make a cross. We find the inside of the thigh to be a good spot. You have to press very hard, sometimes the skin will break on the first scratch and sometimes not. If you then draw the prongs back across the first scratch, again pressing very hard, to make an 'X', then you are pretty certain to break the skin at the point where you two scratches meet, and the second scratch drags the vaccine into the small wound so created.