[bamford6]

Northern Britian is currently in the middle of the longest spell of cold/snowy weather since 1996 and with these conditions set to intensify and spread south next week (the south has already had much cold & snow) the question could be asked whether this winter will be the first severe winter since 1979.

Severe winters in the UK. are generally regarding as those with a mean Winter CET below 2c so since the war only 1940, 1947 and 1979 have qualified, it is now thirty years since we experienced a proper severe winter.

Its still early days but looking at recent model output the cold will intensify over the New Year and 'could' set us up for a very cold January, of course much can go wrong but clearly the Northern Blocking we see at the moment is the most impressive I have seen since 1986. Yes, severe cold spells occured in 1987, 1991 and 1996 but these spells were always brought about by Scandy Highs which often lack the staying power of a Greenland/Arctic Block.

The current situation where pressure remains high from Greenland across the pole has the potential to be far more long lasting so I think the chance of a severe winter is increasing with time.

In my opinion we will just miss a severe winter (it started mild) but I think the chances of this winter being the coldest winter since 1981/82 are considerable.

If I had to put a figure on it I reckon we could achieve a CET of around 2.5c, the lowest since 1981/82.

I  THINK we could loose all oure stock iff things dont change minus ten all day and no end in sight .i spent all day at the pens the water is naw being changed 3 times a day .it could get colder at the end off the week
We're expecting cold weather to push back south across the entire country during the week ahead with an increasing risk of snow in all regions. The cold spell may intensify further during the first week of January as air from Siberia sweeps right across western Europe.
Confidence on the details is very low, but it does look as though we could be looking at quite a severe spell of wintry weather. Computer forecasting models are suggesting the cold spell may persist for at least 10 days.
So after a cold December with widespread snow it looks as though January will start off in a similar vein. Our winter forecast suggested this would be the second consecutive UK winter with colder than average temperatures, and we are now increasingly confident that this will be correct. We've heard some people suggest the chances of a cold winter in the UK are now as low as one in thirty due to climate change. If this is the case it would suggest a one in nine hundred chance of having two cold winters in succession!     

[marigold]

I  THINK we could loose all oure stock iff things dont change minus ten all day and no end in sight

Just wondering why you think that you might lose your stock? I imagine that as the freeze continues it will wear down our animals but if we compensate with extra food and straw will that not be enough?

[doganjo]

That's what I reckon too.  My birds are getting almost twice as much layers pellets as usual, plus half a dozen bread rolls or old bread, plus any spare veg going plus porridge with citricidal and wine vinegar every second day.  They have loads of extra straw in their sheds too.  My dogs are having warm meals instead of cold; they have overhead heaters in their kennels plus old duvets and pillows to keep them warm.  I'm pretty sure I won't lose any from the cold.

[bamford6]

at the moment we can cope for saterday and sunday minus 18 to 20 is forcast day temp minus 10 when we get to minus 20 the diesel cars wont run the next cold spell will start wich will be colder

[bamford6]

saterday 2 nd

[northfifeduckling]

North Fife Sunday the 3rd, still the same as yesterday...

http://north-fife.blogspot.com/

 

[marigold]

Ok getting fed up now. I have developed a rotten cough and can't even go for a proper walk. We have resolved the shower problem though. We just visit our friends with a towel and soap bag. There are great folk around here who are pleased to help. We're even getting our tea cooked for us tonight...
 

[RUSTYME]

Happy new year everyone...(although it isn't very happy here at the moment  !! lol.).
  have had 6" of snow so far this time ...not much I know , but it is more than enough when you are walking 5 miles every day to feed the horses !!
 The walk to the village is a bit rough to say the least , ice and snow down a steep track to the road. Once it gets too icy it is a matter of walking through the fields , although they are frozen solid and it is hard to stay upright .
The walk from the village to the land is clear of snow , so isn't bad at all , apart from the fact I have got a ligament gone in my knee , and it is bl**dy murder . Every step is like a huge electric shock going up your leg ...agony .
 Now , after 3 weeks of this knee thing , I am getting problems with the right hip , due to the way I am limping to keep the weight off my left knee. The hip is the one I did most damage to in the car smash years ago . I just hope to god it lasts out till the knee eases off , which it is very slowly starting to do at last.
 Once I get to the land , it is relatively ok . The track is very steep coming off the road , and the knee does not like going down hill at all , so very slow sideways walk down the hill !!. Then it is about 300 yards or so along the track , not a nice smooth track just an old cart type track , ok for 4x4 and tractors , not so good for bad knees !!
 Still , it is off the road and the dogs can wonder as they please , rather than try to pull me off my feet . The haylage is normally dropped off by the farmer right by the gate, at the end of the track . But due to the snow he has had to drop 2 bales (really big round bales) off at the road this time. So that means carrying all the daily feed from the bales , to the feeder , 300 yards .
 So each trip for more feed is 600 yards + and it will take 6 - 8 trips to get enough ...3600 - 4800 yards everyday. That, is on top of the 5 mile walk anyway !   I tried the wheelbarrow...forget it ...got about 10 feet ...nearly snapped my knee...lol.
 If I can get some of the right type of wood there , I might be able to make a sled  to take a days feed in one go , but I am doubtful that the knee would hold up to that either .  So it looks like carrying 2 bags of haylage at a time will be the only way to do it.
 This is why I hate snow ...I just hope that the knee and hip hold out ...roll on the end of April beginning of May !! God that seems like a long time away !!!

cheers

Russ

[doganjo]

.roll on the end of April beginning of May !!

Good God, Rusty - what weather report have you been watching   This bl99dy snow and ice isn't staying THAT long I hope!

[RUSTYME]

lol... I hope to god not too Annie... so far they are saying that the temp round here is likely to stay very low for for the next 10 days ..what comes then ?  But the April/May bit was relating to when I can stop feeding the horses everyday , the grass should be growing well by then .  Only another 120 days of walking 5 miles a day to go ....


cheers

Russ

[doganjo]

Boy, you must be fit though.  Watch out for any photographers looking for calendar boys

[RUSTYME]

fit to drop at the moment .....and if there are any photographers looking for calender boys .. then they won't be looking at me ....I look like a tramp when I am going to the land...the only thing I don't have, is the bit of string round the waist ....YET !!!

cheers

Russ

[marigold]

you're making me feel like a real wimp Rusty. Today I'm curled up on the sofa with a sore chest feeling sorry for myself cos I've got to give do the afternoon round of animals none of which is more than 250 yards from the shed.  Have you ever tried those mineral salts Rustox? I used to give them to our old stiff collie.They used to help him......... If you want a piece of string I could probably send one of those. Compo eat your heart out

[Sylvia]

RUSTYME, do you have a "dumpy" bag, the ones that sand etc. for building come in hanging around anywhere. That would make a lovely sledge and hold a lot of hay.

[RUSTYME]

lol... Kirsty ,I think being a wimp is the way to be at the moment .....it was hard going today ....perhaps I should try some of that rustox ? I was once as smart and tidy as the bloke in the picture.....then I got horses, and a smallholding ... Keep that bit of string handy , just in case !!! 

  I tried an old tarp today .. it was in shreds in less than 30 yards... then tried a dumpy bag ... it did maybe about 45 yards ....Trouble is the track has 2 ruts either side of the centre grassy lump . With everything being frozen , the ridges are like knives , and the track has brambles both sides which also make it nigh on impossible to drag anything that can catch . Also my knee can  only bend a fraction of what it would normally , and apart from the first 30 yards , which are very, VERY steep , the next 100 yards are up hill ... So it was just a matter of filling a dozen feed bags with haylage , and then carrying 2 at a time along the track . 300 yards is such a long way when you are carrying 30lb in each hand and slipping on ice , tripping on brambles and limping with a duff knee, and then trying to wipe the frozen tears of pain from your face !! Even colder again tomorrow they say , with more snow maybe !!

cheers

Russ