Agri Vehicles Insurance from Greenlands

Author Topic: Weather  (Read 2357 times)


  • Joined Sep 2011
  • West Yorks
« on: November 13, 2015, 10:19:34 pm »
Just been looking at the weather forecast, doesn't look like the girls will be getting much exercise this weekend :-(

Victorian Farmer

  • Guest
Re: Weather
« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2015, 11:26:27 pm »
 well the farmers forcast north of Scotland I am sorry to tell you that sadly, you may well have a very severe winter ahead of you!    The snow from last year laid in parts in the Cairngorms without melting - even in early September, and things are no better for this winter.

As you will see on the website the advance predictions December to end of February, I split the UK into three weather regions, because that is what my methodology dictates - and it is rarely wrong too.

I suggested that from north Wales - north through the lakes, Cumbria and most of Scotland the cold polar air stream (what the meteorologists wrongly call a jet stream) will blow bitterly cold air from the arctic southwards to the above area [which will also extend southwards down the Pennines to the north midlands] but may just miss the extreme east coast.  The simple reason for this is that recent years have shown a preponderance for such a cold wind quite early on in the season and well into spring, hence my warning on the website that heavy snow falls may well be the order of the day for your region.

The first such snow flurries were a couple of weekends ago in the higher parts of Scotland and 100% predictable; frosts also have been present already and again 100% predictable.    However the frosts are a combination of the bitterly cold NE winds coming in from Scandinavia and northern Europe and will be present at least until April 2016!  The simple reason for this is that the wind direction on 29th September was NNE - this therefore (being one of the four quarter days of the year - the next is 21st December)  will be the predominant wind direction for the next 90 days - until 21st December - when I can safely say 100% accuracy it will remain at NNE and also the quarter day after that - 21st March - may well be NE - so the warnings of a highly predictable long hard cold winter are coming true.  These cold NNE winds are dry and very cold, and as such when they collide with lesser cold polar air from the NW will cause heavy snowfalls; the simple reason for this is that this cold polar air collects a lot of moisture s it travels south across the open sea and when it strikes land it temporarily warms but then collides with the really cold NE winds and then tips out as snow.

I see even today looking at the US Air Force weather charts (the most accurate by far) that some snow is forecast for Scotland within the next six days, maybe even this coming weekend in places - again as a result of the winds as I explain above.

The reason why the extreme east coast may escape heavy snow is that it will be too cold - this cold NNE wind extends southwards along the east coast down as far as the English Channel, indeed even here in west Kent every single day since 29th September we have had continuous consecutive NE winds, not a surprise, 100% predictable, since the quarter days are nearly foolproof as wind direction talisman.

So to answer your original question, sadly the NNE wind will cause cold and the longer it lasts the colder it gets too, the ground will freeze - as seen by looking at how far off the ground the berries, hips, haws and seeds are.    If you are lucky, you may escape the real snow until after 20th December, but after that, the polar air takes charge.  I say after the 20th December, because there is a Buchan warm period 3red to the 14th December when the air temperature is warmer than the long term average.   If you look on the website you see what Alexander Buchan did for the weather, look under Buchan warm and cold days, his data is quite reliable and although designed for Edinburgh where he did his research, it is quite applicable to the rest of the UK and is part of my methodology.

I hope this exhaustive answer gives you the why's and wherefores, but I fear this winter could well be in the 1962/63 category, this cold persistent NNE wind is not a good sign at all.   Nature has been forewarning of this for months now and I have tried to warn of this, but since I am not a 'mainstream meteorologist,' for some, such warnings are to no avail.   However I now have developed tried, tested, reliable methodology that works three to six months ahead with about 90% accuracy.   I may well be wrong - but I will stand by the methodology.

I wish you well with your poultry and hope the weather not too severe; even down here in the 'soft south,' we had a shortage of bees this year and the bee keepers are all upset, but I did give ample warning of a damp summer.   A 'good' year for hornets though, more hornets than wasps!!

if when spring arrives - maybe May!! you could tell me how close I was to your weather, that would be helpful for the methodology.

Kindest regards and best wishes - keep warm and dry too. So take note keep you're animals safe.


  • Joined Nov 2013
  • Cambridgeshire
Re: Weather
« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2015, 08:44:17 am »
Love the detailed forecast!  Mine is more of the 'if it looks black in Barley (5miles away) I've probably still got time to ride round the bird reserve' variety.  I am looking forward to seeing if your detailed analysis holds true. But does it hold for Cambridgeshire?


  • Joined Sep 2011
  • West Yorks
Re: Weather
« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2015, 11:19:35 am »
Thanks VF, warnings taken on board, but my girls are goats, now I'm more worried than ever, we got less than normal quantity of hay in, and  haven't found any more locally yet, looks like we'll have to find a way of coping with big bale haylage,  I prefer hay.
Sounds like it's going to be long hard winter, though we've been lucky with a long mild autumn.

Marches Farmer

  • Joined Dec 2012
  • Herefordshire
Re: Weather
« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2015, 11:55:00 am »
We're always braced for a hard Winter, with a thre week supply of long life milk and dried goods for us and a full feed store and  hay barn for the stock.  Also road salt, snow chains for boots and mud & snow tyres for the 4 x 4.  Warm boots, waterproof trapper hats and gloves .... ah, yes, we love Winter!

Victorian Farmer

  • Guest
Re: Weather
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2015, 06:31:29 pm »
The problem will be silage and hay not got high protein content dawn to about 7 as spring was cold no goodness. We could have the second bad spring cold and wet. We will crack on. The next cold spell next week it's cooling fast.

Lesley Silvester

  • Joined Sep 2011
  • Telford
Re: Weather
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2015, 11:33:35 pm »
It certainly is. The wind is blowing a hooley here again even though it's been calm all day.


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