[MAK]

We read yesterday that at Cirencester market they were selling "saddelback weaners" for £10 each and larger pigs were also going cheap.
I wonder if the price of feed and the implications of over wintering pigs are the reason for low prices or is there over production? Someone wrote ( Simon I think) about a cycle in pig production that periodically results in a massive surplus of pigs.
I would be keen to read about that again if anyone can recall the thread.
martin

[HappyHippy]

I think most smallholders prefer raising from spring to autumn, so winter pigs are always very underpriced. But auction markets are never the best place to sell rare breed weaners anyway, most buyers are looking for a commercial breed there  Pig feed prices are rising, straw prices are rising and yet the price folk are prepared to pay for pork, isn't. It's not a sustainable situation 

The global pig market, right at the moment, is in a bit of a mess 

I get the Pig World magazine (mainly aimed at the commercial operators) and there's lots of information and different stories in it. Here's what I've gleaned so far.....
The EU stalls ban coming in January 2013 is having quite a significant effect on the size of the EU pig herd. Most, if not all countries are culling sows, simply because they can afford to make the welfare changes needed (the same welfare standards we've had in the UK since, I think, 1999) in time for the stall ban.
It should be a good time for British pig producers, but it's not  Processors aren't upping the price, despite a rise of close to £100 per tonne of pig food and many other increasing costs in the last year - commercial famers are losing money on every single pig they put away (and you're probably talking 1000 pigs per week) and when facing the prospect of having to cover these costs for the next 4-6 months many UK farmers are deciding they just can't afford to do it and are culling sows, so the UK herd is decreasing too.
America is in the position where they have a huge surplus of pig meat, so are also culling some of their national breeding herd - pig production seems to be dropping world wide at the moment.
There may come a time, in the not too distant future, where there simply aren't enough farmers to cope with the demand - no bacon butties for breakfast

[bloomer]

if the global supply dries up i will be even more glad i buy direct from smallholders, i need bacon to make my world work!!!

[kja]

last week our local market sold weaners between £7 & £47 each the coloured pigs were all sold cheap the whites fetched the money a pen of 10 week old pedigree berkshires sold for £8 each where a pen of welsh £47.

[sokel]

There was a litter of 10 advertised online the other day for £116 for the 10   

[deepinthewoods]

mak i remember that thread about the 'pig cycle'  ive had trouble trying to find the link. probly cos hes now a guest.

[MAK]

Thanks HappyHippy - that makes sense. Here in france they are paying people NOT to keep pigs - it's aimed at the big pig pig breeders in Brittany but there have been some witty posts that have calculated how much they will receive for NOT keeping sows and boars - ( posts from car mechanics who have never kept pigs).
It is serious but as you say there will always be a demmand so maybe those who can produce with new economies can cash in.
Dave - was it Simon who explained the economic cycle of production - it was interesting.

[deepinthewoods]

mak, yes it was. in debate with robert. it aptly described this situation. i think the cycle had a different name, that i cant remember.
it must have been 6months ago, maybe more.

[hughesy]

It's a funny old world with pigs isn't it. We recently advertised a litter for sale at 8 weeks of age for 40 quid each, which is kind of break even money. No takers, but never mind there's no profit in selling weaners anyway but it would have lightened the load a bit to have a few less pigs over the winter. I know what'll happen, someone will come along in a few weeks time wanting to buy "weaners" that are now 12 or 13 weeks old, and when I explain that they're not 40 quid anymore they'll get stroppy and not buy any.They'll be thinking the longer they've been for sale the cheaper they ought to be. Wrong. If I keep them on until slaughter I'll make a profit on them so why sell them now for a loss? Certainly won't be offloading any at auction any time soon.

[Mrs Snoodles]

We have made the same decision too Hughesy except that with the pedigree Large blacks, especially the rarer line that we if someone wanted one for breeding then it would be considered differently.  We have costed on producing halves, it makes alot more economic sense.

[Mel]

Weaners were £8.00 each here at our last farmers market!

[Fowgill Farm]

It would be great if when folk quote prices they hear about they could give an idea of location, i think KJA might be talking about York rare breed sale prices, sokel i know is further north, it would just give a better picture. Pigs & pork have always been a boom & bust kind of industry, i remember years ago a local pig farmer bought a new Merc on the back of rising pig prices, he's out of business now! According to FW pig armers are losing £18+ on every pig they take to slaughter.
Dire times.
   for improvement soon. Going to collect my bacon this week from the lady who cures it for me, it is so popular i have to ration it amongst my customers!
Mandy

[ShaunP]

It is something that I have posted about before with what is wrong with alot of British Farming. If you dont make the effort to market and sell your products direct to the end users then you suffer that you get paid only what the wholesale market considers to be the value of your product rather than the cost. Traditionally farmers dont do marketing as they only want to farm. I dont have commercial farm but I do enjoy being able to supply a small number of friends with what is a high quality product at a reasonable price that gives me a very small return for my efforts. I now find it easier to buy in quality weaners for fattening rather then having my own sow and breeding my own. But I would need to raise an awful lot of pigs to be able to make a living rather than just enjoying what I do as a hobby that pays for itself and puts some quality food on the table!!

[kja]

It would be great if when folk quote prices they hear about they could give an idea of location, i think KJA might be talking about York rare breed sale prices, sokel i know is further north, it would just give a better picture. Pigs & pork have always been a boom & bust kind of industry, i remember years ago a local pig farmer bought a new Merc on the back of rising pig prices, he's out of business now! According to FW pig armers are losing £18+ on every pig they take to slaughter.
Dire times.
   for improvement soon. Going to collect my bacon this week from the lady who cures it for me, it is so popular i have to ration it amongst my customers!
Mandy

no not york it was melton market they seem to sell white well covered weaners well couloured or poor type not so well.

[deepinthewoods]

mak
http://www.accidentalsmallholder.net/forum/index.php?topic=21165.msg201225#msg201225
 
this is the bit......
 
''The cycle consists of massive fluctuations in pig numbers caused by overreactions to changes in market prices of pigs and feedstuff. When the price of feedstuff rises (Stage I), the financial position of most pig farmers goes sharply negative and they cut the number of pigs they rear. In the next stage (II), the large fall in pork and bacon availability leads to price rises, which restore the viability of pig breeding and rearing. In Stage III, improved profitability leads to a large jump in pig numbers, causing prices to moderate or fall. Stages IV-onwards, either consist of continual yo-yoing of prices and pork supply (let's call this stable instability) or everybody learning from recent experience, the fluctuations becoming smaller and increasingly the industry achieves greater degrees of price stability and stable supply (let's call this incremental stability through learning).''