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Author Topic: Some other points about cold days/The coldest days of each year  (Read 3687 times)

bamford6

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Some other points about cold days/The coldest days of each year
« on: January 06, 2010, 12:53:50 pm »
The coldest days of each year


1900 -19.4 Braemar 11 February

1901 -18.8 Swarraton (Hants.) 9 January

1902 -18.9 Lairg 14 February

1903 -17.2 Braemar 13 January

1904 -14.4 Appleby (Cumbria) 27 November

1905 -15.0 Braemar 18 November

1906 -16.8 Woodbridge (Suffolk) 30 December

1907 -15.0 Llangammarch Wells (Powys) 25 January

1908 -18.3 Liphook (Hants.) 30 December

1909 -17.8 Marlborough 3 March, Balmoral 7 December

1910 -23.3 Balmoral 28 January

1911 -12.2 Garforth 1 February

1912 -20.6 West Linton 4 February

1913 -15.6 Braemar 31 December

1914 -13.9 Braemar 25 December

1915 -13.3 Balmoral 5 December

1916 -16.7 Braemar 20 February

1917 -20.0 Benson (Oxon) 6 February

1918 -19.4 West Linton (Borders) 14 January

1919 -23.3 Braemar 14 November

1920 -18.3 Raunds 13 December

1921 -15.0 Braemar 7 March

1922 -13.3 West inton, Eskdalemuir, Garforth 18 January

1923 -14.4 Braemar 25 Decembe

1924 -16.7 Balmoral 3 March

1925 -16.7 Braemar 20 December

1926 -16.7 Luton 17 January

1927 -17.8 Braemar 18 December; Logie Coldstone 17, 18 December

1928 -13.3 Braemar 1 January

1929 -18.3 Usk (Gwent), Ross-on-Wye 14 February; Houghall (Durham)17 February

1930 -16.1 Newport (Gwent) 20 March

1931 -17.2 Braemar 3 March

1932 -11.7 Dalwhinnie 12 March

1933 -15.6 Logie Coldstone 19 January

1934 -12.2 Braemar 14 March

1935 -15.6 Braemar 24 December

1936 -15.0 Braemar 5, 13 February

1937 -21.7 Braemar 13 December

1938 -15.6 Braemar 22 December

1939 -17.2 Dalwhinnie, Braemar 4 January

1940 -23.3 Rhayader (powys) 21 January

1941 -21.1 Houghall (Durham) 5 January; West Linton (Borders) 6 January

1942 -19.4 Braemar 8 March

1943 -13.9 Braemar 5 January

1944 -15.0 Braemar 28 February

1945 -19.4 Dalwhinnie 26 January

1946 -14.4 Dalwhinnie 26 February

1947 -21.1 Elmstone (Kent) 29 January; Peebles, Braemar 4 March,; Braemar 8 March

1948 -15.6 Logie Coldstone 24 January

1949 -17.8 Braemar 5 January

1950 -18.3 Dalwhinnie 15 December

1951 -16.1 Dalwhinnie 11 March

1952 -17.2 Logie Coldstone 30 January

1953 -12.8 Braemar, Dalwhinnie 3 January

1954 -20.0 Welshpool 2 February

1955 -25.0 Braemar 23 February

1956 -18.9 Perth 3 February

1957 -16.1 Sutton Bonnington (Notts.) 20 February

1958 -22.8 Logie Coldstone (Grampian) 14 March

1959 -17.8 Braemar 15 January; Kincraig (Highland) 4 February

1960 -22.2 Grantown-on-Spey 18 February

1961 -22.2 Cannich (Highland) 30 December

1962 -21.1 Corwen (Clwyd) 2 January

1963 -22.2 Braemar 18 January

1964 -15.5 Caldecott (Leics.) 29 December

1965 -21.7 Corwen (Clwyd) 3 March

1966 -20.0 Braemar 15 Februar

1967 -14.4 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 10 December

1968 -18.3 Braemar 21 February

1969 -20.6 Grantown-on-Spey 18 February

1970 -21.1 Carnwath (Strathclyde), West Linton (Borders) 7 January

1971 -12.8 Braemar 4 January

1972 -18.5 Moorhouse (Cumbria) 31 January

1973 -21.2 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 15 February

1974 -10.2 Lagganlia (Highland) 14 February

1975 -11.4 Balmoral 8 February

1976 -16.2 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 5 December

1977 -18.7 Lagganlia (Highland) 17 January

1978 -22.0 Keith (Grampian) 20 February

1979 -24.6 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 13 January

1980 -17.5 Clashnoir (Grampian) 2 January

1981 -25.2 Shawbury (Shrops.) 13 December

1982 -27.2 Braemar 10 January

1983 -11.5 St. Harmon (Powys) 23 November

1984 -23.6 Grantown-on-Spey 20 January

1985 -23.4 Lagganlia (Highland) 27 January

1986 -21.2 Grantown-on-Spey 27 February

1987 -23.3 Caldecott (Leics.) 13 January

1988 -11.6 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 22 November

1989 -14.0 Tummell Bridge 15 December

1990 -8.4 Grantown-on-Spey 15 February

1991 -16.0 Cawood (N Yorks.) 14 February

1992 -12.3 Worcester 22, 23 January

1993 -15.8 Altnaharra 26 December

1994 -13.8 Strathallan (Perth.) 17 February

1995 -27.2 Altnaharra 30 December

1996 -13.0 Aviemore 25 December

1997 -15.2 Shepshed (Lincs.) 3 January

1998 -17.0 Altnaharra 1 March

1999 -14.0 Sennybridge (south Wales) 20 December

2000 -15.0 Dalmally (Argyll) 30 December

2001 -21.7 Kibrace (Caithneess) 3 March

2002 -16.1 Grantown 2 January

2003 -18.3 Aviemore 7 January

2004 -15.2 Kinbrace (Sutherland) 19 December

2005 -13.2 Ravensworth (North Yorks.) 29 December

2006 -16.4 Altnaharra 2 March

2007 -13.0 Aboyne 22 December

2008 -12.9 Aviemore 30 December

2009 -18.9 Aviemore 8 January



Some other points about cold days

-25C has been reached or bettered only 4 times since 1955; -20 has been reached 21 times. The earliest date for the coldest day since 1900 is 14 November (in 1919, at Braemar; -23.3); the latest is 20 March (-16.1C at Newport, Gwent, 1930). The highest yearly minimum is just -8.4C, in February 1990, at Grantown.

The lowest temperatures occur early in the morning of clear above a layer of fresh snow (which is an excellent insulator and allows the air above it to cool radiatively. An absence of winds prevents warming by mixing of layers of air. Valley bottoms can act as frost hollows, permitting low temperatures. In Scotland and Northern Irleand the lowest temperatures usually occur in Arctic air with northerly winds. In the south, the coldest winter days happen when very cold continental air is brought in from the east. In the south the easterly air mass has to cross a smaller area of warming water (the Channel) than east Scotland, say, where the North Sea is much wider. On the other hand, the nights are longer in Scotland, and snow cover is more frequent. Although continental air is cold in winer, the exact degree of coldness depends on its origin and the track followed by the air mass from its source. AIr that comes straight from northern Russia over Poland and Germany can be exceptionally cold (e.g. as happened most notably in 1987, and most recently 1991). If the easterly blows from the Balkans and east Mediterranean it is less much less cold (about 5C) and the weather tends to be damp and grey.

Low minima in summer happen on still nights with clear skies, over sandy soils, which are also poor conductors of heat.

bamford6

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Re: Some other points about cold days/The coldest days of each year
« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2010, 10:49:14 pm »
A lot of snow has fallen overnight across parts of central and southern England, with a deep snow cover greeting some people this morning. Not all areas have been affected though, with parts of Dorset for example missing out altogether. The worse affected areas are those counties along the M4 corridor, where over 20cm of snow has fallen overnight in some spots.

More snow is expected across central and southern England today, with further accumulations expected. Our Severe Weather Warning has been updated this morning with the latest details.

A widespread and sharp frost has developed overnight elsewhere, and further snow showers have brought more lying snow to northeast England in particular. Further snow showers are expected around northern and eastern coasts today, and some of these could be heavy at times. The further north and west that you are, the better the weather is expected to be with some sunny spells around, but wherever you are it will be another very cold day.

If anything, the cold intensifies over the next few days as a strong and biting easterly wind develops, especially across southern areas. This will give a high wind chill factor, and more snow is expected across eastern areas whilst night time frosts will be sharp and penetrating.

doganjo

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Re: Some other points about cold days/The coldest days of each year
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2010, 05:52:52 pm »
And that's just to cheer you all up - thanks Gary! ::)
Always have been, always will be, a WYSIWYG - black is black, white is white - no grey in my life! But I'm mellowing in my old age

bamford6

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Re: Some other points about cold days/The coldest days of each year
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2010, 12:17:59 pm »
The coldest winters


Which are the coldest winters of the twentieth century? Here are the top ten.

1962-63 -0.3

1946-47 1.1

1939-40 1.5

1916-17 1.5

1978-79 1.6

1928-29 1.7

1941-42 2.2

1940-41 2.6

1981-82 2.6

1984-85 2.7

Are winters not as good as they used to be? Not lately they haven't, but it isn't clear that there is any trend until very recently.

Let's consider the distribution of severe winters, defined by two criteria.

1. Severe months with average temperature less than 2.0C. In the first half of the century, there were 14 severe months, and two occasions (Jan-Feb 1917 and 1929) when there were consecutive severe months. In the second half, there were actually a few more - 17 severe months, with two occasions (1963 and 1979) when there were two consecutive severe months, and only one occasion with three consecutive severe months (1916-1917). This difference however will be statistically insignificant.

2. Very severe months with average temperature beneath freezing. In the first half of the century, there were two very severe months (January 1940 and February 1947. In the second half, there were five (February 1956, January 1963, February 1963, January 1979, and February 1986 - and December 1981 came very close).

I think two things are happening. First, people's memories are distorted by the exceptionally severe winters of 1947 and 1962-63, in particular. Second, I think there is a recency effect where there haven't been many severe winter episodes in the last few years. Consider this table of the distribution of the number of severe winter months across the decades of the twentieth century:

1900s
 1910s
 1920s
 1930s
 1940s
 1950s
 1960s
 1970s
 1980s
 1990s
 
1
 4
 2
 1
 6
 4
 5
 2
 5
 1
 


Older people might be affected by the bump in the middle of the century (particularly the war years, which were exceptional) and compare that with the 90s. There is no overall trend, however: note the scarcity of severe months in the 0s and thirties. It is also possible that central heating means that we are less sensitive to cold weather when it happens.

Here are the severe months (mean less than 2.0C):

Feb 1902; Dec 1916, Jan 1917, Feb 1917, Feb 1919, Jan 1929, Feb 1929, Dec 1933, Jan 1940, Jan 1941, Jan 1942, Feb 1942, Jan 1945, Feb 1947, Dec 1950, Feb 1955, Feb 1956, Dec 1962, Jan 1963, Feb 1963, Feb 1968, Feb 1969, Jan 1979, Feb 1979, Dec 1981, Feb 1983, Jan 1985, Feb 1986, Jan 1987, Feb 1991

Here again are the very severe months (mean less than 0C):

January 1940, February 1947, February 1956, January 1963, February 1963, January 1979, February 1986.

It is true that although we have some recent hot months, you have to go back to February 1991 for a cold month. This difference is a clear suggestion of change.



Before the twentieth centuries, winters were better (if you like then cold and snowy). Remember the Little Ice Age? In the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, winter knew how to be winter. Take the coldest winter of them all, the "Lorna Doone" winter of 1683-84, with a CET of -1.2. Or 1739-40, with a CET of -0.4.



 

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