Well that's the $60,000,000 question
Lots of books show you how to knit a piece to turn into a bag, where the eventual size isn't critical, but I couldn't find anything for actual clothing. A while ago I did try it with some mitts. I knitted them about half as big again as I wanted them to be, and they ended up fitting my husband but not me. In fact it partly depends on the type of fleece/yarn you are using - definitely not Superwash which won't felt.
It might be worth your while knitting up a swatch and trying felting that. You can stop the felting once you reach the correct size, but eventually the piece won't felt any more.
It might be worth knitting each piece of the body warmer and felting it before you sew them all together...? That way you can felt them flat on the table, as you would any piece of felt and have good control of the size and shape, as opposed to having to do it on some kind of former, which you would do with a hat.
I do think felted knitting is the way to go with this project, and I will be watching with interest so I can copy you