The Accidental Smallholder Forum
Community => Coffee Lounge => Topic started by: Lync on October 02, 2012, 02:43:03 pm
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:raining: :raining: How much more can we take!! The land is saturated, cannot let chickens out to roam, ducks - well I think they are fed up of it as well. Dogs just stood at back door and looked out!! Sorry for the groan but they forecast rain all week, all it's done today is pour down! Needed to let off some steam!. 4 years after moving here I do wonder if it was the right move - started of wet, wetter and wetter and this year well - what can I say! :wave: from a very very soggy Carmarthenshire
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The first few days of October this year are in stark contrast to this time last year, when many parts of the UK were enjoying an Indian Summer. On the first of October last year we saw the temperature climb to 30C at Gravesend in Kent, on the second, the temperature climbed to 29C. Instead, we have a cooler and unsettled southwesterly flow across the UK through the rest of this week, but the weekend is looking more settled. Back to today, although it's mostly dry and bright, if a little cloudy, across central and eastern areas this morning, we have showers already across western areas, some of which are on the heavy side. These showers will slowly edge eastwards through the day accompanied by the odd rumble of thunder in the west and tending to merge into longer spells of rain in places. The SE of England and northeast of Scotland may stay dry and bright until this evening. Winds will be brisk and cool from a southwesterly direction. Temperatures look to reach about 17C in London this afternoon, 16C in Cardiff, 13C in Belfast and Edinburgh. Windy with showers or longer spells of rain spreading east across most areas overnight, perhaps thundery near coasts. Then on Wednesday, a more prolonged spell of wet weather is on the cards for the far south of England, as a wave develops along a slow-moving weather front here. Elsewhere, brighter, but with showers - which will be heavy and thundery across the west. Thursday is looking drier for most areas - with sunny spells, though still a risk of showers in the west. Friday may see more cloud and rain return to the far south of England, brighter elsewhere, but with scattered showers. However, the weekend at the moment is looking mostly dry and settled with sunny spells, as high pressure builds across the UK, though still on the cool side. THE GOOD NEWS FROM THE WEEK END IT WILL PIC UP AND GET WARMER I PROMISE FOR YOU IN WALES .
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Winter 2012 – 13 initial thoughtsIf you’ve Googled around to look for winter weather forecasts you’ll have probably encountered a blizzard of acronyms and discussions on the topic. QBO, ENSO, SSTs, NAO, AO, SSW are a few which spring to mind. You’ll also see find discussions about arctic sea ice, and how the record melt levels could affect winter weather patterns, as well as current snow cover in Asia, and solar activity. Two of the most fashionable are probably stratospheric warming and arctic sea ice cover, both in the top 5 this year I expect, and to be fair research has indicated a link between warmer stratospheric temperatures and northern blocking, which is the pattern that often leads to colder winters in western Europe. In previous years the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was widely held up as a key indicator, with attempts being made to forecast how it would develop over the winter months by looking at sea surface temperatures. There’s always something that grabs the attention whether it’s one of the ones I’ve listed or something more esoteric such as the early arrival of Waxwings. All good stuff, but to cut to the chase my view is that for various reasons (e.g. it’s difficult to forecast them, or the link between how they develop and the winter that follows isn’t well understood) none of these provide the key to making a winter forecast in late September. Other considerations which I think are useful are background signals such as recent seasons (e.g. cold winters tend to be clustered) and months (e.g. a cool and wet September could be more likely to be followed by a colder winter), and seasonal forecast models provided by forecasting and research agencies around the globe. Taking all these factors into account, here is my initial winter statement – It’s too early to provide a forecast for winter 2012 – 13. At the moment I think there’s a reasonably good chance of a milder than average winter, but if I was forced to make a call I would say the probability of the winter falling into the average or cold :sunshine:
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Yep ...... soggy in Powys too. :gloomy: :gloomy: :gloomy:
Dry first thing so pegged out 3 loads of washing. Waited until it was on the line and hasn't stopped since. ::) >:(
Ground is squelchy, no chickens or sheep to be seen.Today's job was stacking wood and sorting borders ready for winter .... not done again. :(
They tell me .... never mind .... 'tis what makes our grass green .... ::) ;D
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So sorry to hear about your downpours. It is depressing, isn't it? The west country went through something similar about a month ago and I became really short tempered by the end of the fortnight. However, it does stop eventually. Just hang on in there. If all else fails, read the Jokes and funnies section on TAS. A good laugh is very therapeutic. :thumbsup:
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Blowing a gale, and torrential rain, here in North Derbyshire hills. This time last year, we had a very hot week and my neighbour was hay making!! Done nothing but rain all summer. Our lower fields are waterlogged, never drying out. I have used an amazing amount of bedding for the animals, trying to keep their sheds dry (unsuccessfully!)
All my animals are constantly looking for food. Soggy, wet grass, and being cold and wet all the time, its not surprising.
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Just got in from clearing the stream - 8 trug loads of leaves, sticks etc - several big logs!! Had to wear full body waders and still got cold and wet!! If forecast is for a milder winter then here in Wales that means wet! Oh how I shall look forward to that!! :gloomy: is an understatement!! Sure this amount was not forecast - then again they never get it right! Supposedly I have a weird sense of humour but I'll give the jokes section a try!!
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Well i turnd the ground over this morning and this after noon snow on the tops of the mountains it is bad at the mo . :raining:
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The weather in Wales is normally drier in summer than it was this year , this time of year and winter are wet full stop .
You do get used to it though , you have to , either that or your life will feel like purgatory !
Still tipping down here , near Lampeter , and another lot tonight to come , but a bit drier toward the weekend ! Fingers crossed eh ?
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I moved to Carmarthenshire in Feb of this year and it lulled me into a false sense of security as March was very warm (I even got sunburnt) and I don't think we had any rain for the whole of the month. However, it has more than made up for it since. :gloomy: :raining: :gloomy: :raining: :gloomy: :raining: :gloomy: :raining: :gloomy: :raining: :gloomy: :raining:
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A couple recently moved in down our lane, from London, and due to renovations said they had a bit of mud around their property and I might get my shoes muddy when looking after their cat for them.
Did I own any wellies???? :roflanim: :roflanim: :roflanim: :roflanim: [size=78%] [/size]
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Yup! Got the Landy and trailer stuck today...... 20m from our front door! :innocent:
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Yup! Got the Landy and trailer stuck today...... 20m from our front door! :innocent:
nicely done!!! gate into the goose field by any chance?
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I think we've been quite lucky here so far (NE Scotland, on the coast, south of Aberdeen). Spoke to a friend today who got stuck "down south" - I asked why she couldn't get back from Harper Adams to the Nourish Conference in Glasgow...? Soooo - well, everything was flooded! She spent a night more or less looking for somewhere to sleep, or at least to park the car safely so she could stay in it... Managed to be allowed to kip on a sofa in a pub - which wonderful accommodation was arranged for her by a hospital where she'd gone for somewhere safe at least! Nothing's been that bad up here (so far, she says... :fc: )! By the sound of it, a lot of people went out of their way to help, anyway, which is great to hear.
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With you there Lync - we moved here 3 years ago and it was under snow for 6months immediately and the same again the next winter and nothing but rain in between. We are literally rebuilding the place where it stands, anything made of timber has rotted completely. Wish we hadn't moved here although I know it will be great - once its robbed us of every penny we have of course, everything at a price. :gloomy:
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VF's weather report is accurate as far as Shropshire is concerned. Cloudy but dry this morning. Even a little sunshine to lull us into a false sense of security. This afternoon we were back to the rain. Hope it has stopped by the time I go out to the goats.
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earlier in day here in north yorks was glorious which maybe lulled me into false hope but it is now phishing down really hard can hear it bouncing off front windows, when it does that its more orrible & prolonged, so mud glorious mud tomorrow morning at feed time, oh i can hardly wait....NOT :gloomy:
mandy :pig:
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Well I'm p*ssed off - everyday in the last the weather has been just fine during the day...the
moment I get home from work it raining! Or has just rained. :rant: :gloomy:
Still trying to get my winter firewood in order!
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Bangbang that was always the case when I worked. Now I'm retired it just rains all the time. ;D
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nicely done!!! gate into the goose field by any chance?
Oh yes! Trying to reverse the trailer with half a tonne of logs in it, but got well and truly bogged down. Very glad I got the diff lock fixed now! ;D
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Cheers MGM, now I know what my future holds I'll start searching
out arm bands and life jackets on Ebay! :roflanim:
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Cheers MGM, now I know what my future holds I'll start searching
out arm bands and life jackets on Ebay! :roflanim:
I like to be an encouragement to people. :innocent: :roflanim: :roflanim:
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Ha, that reminds me of what a very feisty old friend of mine says.
'at my age, you can either be an example for young people, or a terrible warning. I decided the latter was going to be more fun' :thumbsup:
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Ha, that reminds me of what a very feisty old friend of mine says.
'at my age, you can either be an example for young people, or a terrible warning. I decided the latter was going to be more fun' :thumbsup:
Now why didn't I think of that? Now, where do I start being a terrible warning? :roflanim:
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Our track is a river of slow moving mud, the muckheap is just a sodden mass of gunge, Getting so fed up with it now, just utter missery. :rant:
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Okay .... the ground is sodden ..... washing is still dripping on the line ...... BUT ...... the sun is shining in Powys :sunshine: :excited:
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The weather seems unpredicatable but it was something we looked up before selecting a new home. As others have said in this thread and many other posts the weather can really challenge a smallholder and can make life pretty miserable.
We could not afford what we wanted in England and I had concerns about the lack of winter light in Scotland. Wales seemed too wet.
We opted for a fantastic plot in mid France. The growing season is longer and although it can be very hot or very cold with bouts of torrential rain we don't seem to have sustained perriods of grey and drizzle. We have had little rain these last few months and watering the veg plot has been a daily job. Odd as a precipitation map for our area shows us to have about 1600 - 1800 mm a year.
Maybe we should warn people to research the local climate as a priority if they are thinking of starting a smallholding - even though the weather seems less predicatble these days. Victorian Farmer could offer home seekers researched historical weather reports before they buy.
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Yes, I wish we lived in France - I would go tomorrow - are there any jobs for architects out there that speak basic French only do you think MAK?
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The best place 2012 was the west coast of Scotland It has been a year that has seen weather (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/weather) patterns turned upside down. In 2011, Britain had one of the finest springs on record. This was followed by one of our worst-ever summers. And theMet Office (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/met-office)says there is more to come.At least, that is the message from forecasters and meteorologists who are studying the twists and turns of the British weather. The strange patterns of rain, wind and sunshine that have swept the nation reveal a fundamental truth, they have found. The UK is one of the most erratic, changeable places on Earth when it comes to weather. Inverted patterns of rain, sun and wind are simple facts of life and we had better get used to them.in 2010 Last month was the coldest December documented for the UK since nationwide records began 100 years ago, the Met Office has confirmed.]For central England, it was the second coldest December since 1659. Last month was the UK's wettest June since records began in 1910, provisional Met Office figures show. comes after this year also saw the rainiest April on record, while the period from April to June was the wettest recorded for the UK. June was also the second dullest on record with 119.2 hours of sunshine - the record of 115.4 hours was in 1987 Total UK rainfall was 145.3mm - more than twice as much as normally expected, the Met Office said. so the last 3 years 2010 2011 2012 HAVE BROKEN ALL RECORDS if this keeps up UK will be bust in the next 3 yeares FOOD FUEL ELECTRICATEY all live stock bred abroad
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:sunshine: :sunshine: :sunshine: Here in Carmarthenshire today - at least at the moment!! More of this please! Won't get too :excited: ! Will go and let my :chook: :&> out to roam and enjoy the weather - guarded by the :dog: !
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:sunshine: :sunshine: :sunshine: in Shropshire too. It did go black at one point and started to rain but only lasted minutes. Usually it's the sun that only last minutes. The sky is still blue. Long may it last. (But I'm not holding my breath).
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All the :gloomy: :gloomy: was on us today. There was threat of thunderstorms, but still waiting for that one :innocent: .plenty of heavy rain tho.
:sunshine: for us tomorrow please :fc:
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As mammy shaz said we had horrendous rain up here last night, torrential for about 3hrs, but today blue skies and :sunshine: :sunshine: however everywhere is absolutley bogging, sick of mud.
You can tell the weathers better by lack of participants on here this morning, me i'm stuck inside at work ;) working alledgedly!
Mandy :pig:
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Yes fowgill, :sunshine: :sunshine: :sunshine: at last :excited:
It took a few hours for the frost to go but still lovely to see the sun while sludging about in wellies, instead of hiding from the rain in my hooded jacket ;D
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:wave: Hi, :sunshine: here today as well. Not looking forward to tomorrow though forecast :gloomy: , then :sunshine: Saturday and then :gloomy: Sunday and into next week!! If only I was not sat in front of the computer working! Never mind make the most of Saturday.
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More :sunshine: :sunshine: :sunshine: today. I could get used to this. The goats are now cleaned out and enjoyed walking round their yard instead of wading through the quagmire. Even my walking was better today. It's amazing how much better you feel with a bit of sun on your back. Hope everyone else gets loads of the yellow stuff as well.
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Oh good grief they've issued yet another flood warning for my area from midnight :raining: ewes are still on high ground so ok but we want to put them on a fresh bite. this is becoming repetitive if i so much as hear the word drought or hosepipe ban for at least a year i'm going to scream long and loud :rant:
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I have just read the post by Victorian Farmer and I alert everyone to his last paragraph. Over the last year I have read so many posts from people describing their difficulties with cold, wet and even sun. Main crop potatoes, cereals etc have been poor and fruit producers must have had a terrible financial year. On the pig forum others are talking about the massive increase in the cost of feed and the potential consequences for producers and consumers.
So - I too have concerns for those making a living from smallholding and I am also concerned for those of us aiming to be as near self sufficient as we can.
Challenging ?
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This latest update makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. It now suggests a higher than average chance of a White Christmas across all of the country. There are continued signs of northern blocking developing during the autumn months according to some long range forecasting models, and if that turns out to be correct then expect subsequent forecasts to increase the chances of snow on December 25th. Cyclonic conditions have developed across the country in late September, and TWO seasonal forecasts consider this to be a more favourable pattern for colder weather in the winter months. The for cast of 2010 when i said the coldist for 100 yeares the set up is the same blocking developing at the mo it would be a diaster for farmers in late november we have double feed costs and no straw or hay ether .
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Thanks for that forecast. The northern block resulted in "le Grand Froid" here in central France about 1500 feet. Three sodin weeks of severe cold - frozen water pipes and the livestock refusing to leave their shelters. Please - not again! :excited: It was good fun though - a bit like "it's a Knockout" - the marathon was me carrying water down the lane to our house and seing how much I emptied into a large black bin. The joker was me having a snow bucket to flush the toilet !!
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Yes, I can see three weeks of that would get tedious!
Mind you, in general I prefer the cold to the endless wet and mud - at least it's solid and dry underfoot when it's properly cold :)
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Agree, we had the big diggers in again churning the place up as we're moving big half tonne stones around relandscaping, so swampy and squelchy with kids and pets running around, can't wait until it freezes up so I'm not tripple-salcho-ing around.
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Sorry to say that I had to water the melons, peppers etc today. T shirts and cold drinks on the "terrace" - ( well bit of grass we have outside the back door).
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Don't be sorry, everybody on TAS is coming over in half an hour.... ;D
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Too right, if it weren't for the York sale tomorrow, I'd be asking you to make up a bed and get the barbecue on ;D
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You could stll make a day trip. My daughter flew from Leeds to us for £7.99 ., It did cost her £15 to get from Leeds city to the airport though.
BBQ rabbit tomorrow and maybe some of our own saucisson.
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Oh, now I am plotting........ :D
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Pick you up on the way Jaykay, we could bring a goose each - enjoy York tomorrow and put your purse away don't forget :innocent:
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We had lots and lots of rain overnight but its a lovely (albeit a bit soggy) morning here today.
I took this pic of the mist in the valley below at 8.45 this morning.
Sally
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Oh lovely Bionic, isn't this just such a lovely time of year, breathe it in :D
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Rain last night but lovely :sunshine: again today.