The Accidental Smallholder Forum
Community => Coffee Lounge => Topic started by: SallyintNorth on November 07, 2011, 12:29:05 am
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Since the weather scientists (alright, meteorologists - but why doesn't that mean someone who studies asteroids? ;D) .. since the meteorologists have now admitted that they can't predict the weather any more, at least not more than a week or so ahead, I wondered what signs any of you folks use and what they are saying this year?
I trust my Fell Ponies' instincts. My gelding saved my life (and his) once, refusing to go up a hill in the rain - thunder and lightening came soon, and the next day we found a bullock dead on that very hillside, no visible cause of death and the insurance accepted a claim for struck by lightening. Many times the mare has refused to go out 'on top' and evil weather has come in within 30 minutes.
Last year, the ponies grew really thick coats by the end of October. Snow came mid-November and broadly lasted until after Christmas. This year they are only just starting to thicken up their coats, and so far nothing like as thick as last year or the year before.
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:ladybug: Ladybirds, the sight of ladybirds always tell me that the land is warm. If I see them in February or March then that can be regarded as a summer drought. We had Ladybirds on the south side of Huddersfield, Barnsley border last February as I was on a country walk and stopped to talk to a farmer who was playing with an engine in his old Massey 35. He said "we are in for a drought, there's ladybirds". By the end of April into March we had a drought. Cannot say it worked for the summer?
I am still finding Ladybirds by the first week of November in the ground in my field which is on the Huddersfield/Halifax border. Having said that I did not see any on November 6th and we have had our first proper ground frost. :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug:
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I go by the berries on the Rowan (Mountain Ash) tree - many haws means many snaws ;)
There were a fair few berries (haws) this year so we're bracing ourselves ::)
And the old one about snow lying behind dry stone dykes meaning there's still more snow to come seems to be consistantly accurate too :-\
Karen :wave:
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two nights hard frost before the old term (11Th November) half the winter is away ye may be sure there is fodder enough and if there is no frost the reverse is true :farmer:
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My pigs are the best weather forecasters, you only have to look to see how they building their beds to know we're in for some nasty weather, also berries on the trees, haws, sloes etc loads this year which is the sign of a hard winter to come. Perishing frost last night troughs and taps frozen this morning, they didn't forecast that for this area last night, daren't look at my geraniums in the greenhouse, hope they've survived will bring them in this afty.
Mandy :pig:
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I just assume it's going to be wintery and if it's not then I get a surprise :D :D
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i think you re right i have a paid forcast which is put up on here .winter 2010 i was told that December would be the coldist for 100 yeres so i got all the stock in the barns .we have been told that the 1st or the second week off December will be bad but from the end off December very cold January .Whot i think is we have had 2 bad winters i Carnot see a 3rd October very mild and no cold in Europe Att least till the end off November iv got stock in sheds laying well and hatching naw for spring just in case It goes dawn hill .iff it was a green Christmas it would be fantastic .we can go for days not seeing eney body ,this yere has been the best ever 310 lambs lots off stock bred good Autumn .so i hope that its a mild winter no snow till Christmas cold January and that's itt.October November has been very good chickins out side warm days i hope it lasts.
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I just assume it's going to be wintery and if it's not then I get a surprise :D :D
;D ;D I bet you're right more often than the weather forecasters! And than those of us using nature's signs and old wives' tales... :D
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It's going to be mild. Thats because I'm far better prepared than last winter already.
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It's going to be mild. Thats because I'm far better prepared than last winter already.
Aye, that'll be it. We've more silage than ever, more hay than ever, the refurbished cattle shed is comfy and awaiting occupants ...
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A car came in the garage workshop today for a repair and sat on the roof, a Ladybird. A black one with red spots, I've look it up and it comes under a Harlequin axyridis ? Do not ask what it means apart from despite the damp low cloud, lady birds are still about in Huddersfield. :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug:
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Aren't Harlequins the baddies? There have been plagues of them. :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug: :ladybug: :o ;D
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I think you're right fleecewife. Isn't it one of those biological-controls-gone-wrong stories? Introduced to eat aphids and now it's displacing the native species? (As well as hibernating in houses, making stains and stenches and, so I've read, even biting people!)
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I go by the berries on the Rowan (Mountain Ash) tree - many haws means many snaws ;)
There were a fair few berries (haws) this year so we're bracing ourselves ::)
And the old one about snow lying behind dry stone dykes meaning there's still more snow to come seems to be consistantly accurate too :-\
Karen :wave:
Re the snow behind the dykes: the old boys round here say 'Aye the old man will be back for his bones'....which I love!
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I'm inclined to think that a glut of berries, sloes etc. is a sign that we had a mildish Spring. No frosts to kill the blossom/young fruit.
I'm with you, Fleecewife, I assume that as it's winter it'll be cold. The thing I love about British weather is that whatever comes along you know it won't last for too long. No more than a week or so down this way.
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here last year we had snow from October til April.....so a long winter is very very very long.....:-OO But I still get excited when I see the first snowflake and the lying snow does make the mornings seem less dark as it lights up your way! ;D
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You must be a bit further up than South Devon then ;)
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We're doing well up to now no frost, had Bumblebees, lots of Ladybirds and Butterflies on the field in the last 2 days, mild mornings but temp is really starting to drop in the afternoons,
Have pine cones hung in the tree next to the barn and they are all closed so Bill Foggitt would say it going to be damp
But seriously I was having a look online about weather and stumbled across this forum for those who are interested in weather
http://www.weather-banter.co.uk/ (http://www.weather-banter.co.uk/)
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2062230/Holly-trees-berries-70-years-set-usher-freezing-winter.html?ITO=1490 (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2062230/Holly-trees-berries-70-years-set-usher-freezing-winter.html?ITO=1490)
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I am fully expecting a significant and imminent pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the upcoming winter. The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex (something to keep an important eye on, over the coming weeks). This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.
As I stated in my last update and many others, I fully expect the blocking to be more sustained this winter in comparison to the 2010/11 winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that a more sustained blocking pattern, could result in temperature or snowfall records being broken within that defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole.
One final note, I certainly never said anything about WIDESPREAD heavy snowfall in October, or Siberian temperatures to hit us in weeks. These are headlines to grab your attention, the quotes within the articles from myself read somewhat differently. Although I am very grateful to the Daily Express who have sufficiently raised enough awareness of another cold and snowy winter.
The final and big question on the cards is 'WILL IT SNOW' ?
My answer: YES, and it will be widespread across many parts of the UK.