The Accidental Smallholder Forum
Community => Coffee Lounge => Topic started by: bamford6 on October 14, 2010, 10:16:37 pm
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We’ve just published our UK winter 2010/11 initial propsects which suggest the possibility of the third consecutive colder than average winter in the UK. The final TWO forecast for winter 2010/11 will be issued in late November as usual and may indicate a different outcome. If you’re wondering about the last couple of years, on both occassions our initial winter prospects issued in mid October hinted at a colder than average winter, and this was maintained in the final winter forecasts. The winters did both end up colder than average. See our homepage and press release for more info.
A hat trick of cold winters for the UK?
In Britain between 1991 and 2007 most winters were mild, but the last two years have brought a change, with 2009/10 bringing the coldest conditions since 1979 to many parts of the country. So a cold winter this year would mean the third in succession. Is it likely? As ever, long range forecasting is about identifying broad patterns and trends, and given this TheWeatherOutlook view is that a colder than average conditions are likely this winter. However, the pattern which develops may be different this time, with the cold tending to come more from the east or south east rather than the north east. In this scenario the heaviest snow often occurs in the boundary zone between the cold dry air from the east, and the mild and moist air trying to push in from the Atlantic, but the cold can be most persistent in eastern regions. Our full and final winter forecast will be issued in late November
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Oh stop it, Gary! we have enough to worry about without the weather! ;) And you shouldn't be worrying about it either. Hope you are keeping well and looking after yourself ;D
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How are these longrange forecasts drawn up? The Met only do 30 day forecasts now as anything longer is too innaccurate.
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I'm going to stop reading your weather posts Gary - waaaaay to depressing ;) :D :D :D
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How's this for depressing :
'...these cycles [global warming] having now gone into reverse, so winters like this one [2009] will become much more likely...all this will last two decades or longer....This revelation of a possible 20 or 30 year cooling phase was repeated at an IPCC conference in Geneva in September 2009...as we shall see, it's not global warming we have to worry about over the next 30 years, but a semi-permanent return of arctic conditions'.
This was taken from a report of Professor Mojib Latif who leads a research team at the Leibniz Institute at Kiel University in Germany. I read it in Gavin Cooke's book 'Frozen Britain'.
Personally, I am a little sceptical - there is probably other evidence which refutes these claims (I hope!)
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doganjo are you ok me I'm fine .selling at 2 big sales at the moment to loose stock iff the winter is a nother bad 1 .iv only got feed for 2 months the young stock cost a lot more to rearer with a pound on every think .i see you have new ducks .the forcast is a paid 1 from wether action was right all through last winter .the snow will be in aviemore from wensday next week fact .so 25 sheep will be gone by then
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Next week :o
Nooooooo... :( :( I don't think I want to know any more, I had the boiler serviced but haven't bought the oil supply yet ::)
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We’ve just published our UK winter 2010/11 initial propsects which suggest the possibility of the third consecutive colder than average winter in the UK. The final TWO forecast for winter 2010/11 will be issued in late November as usual and may indicate a different outcome. If you’re wondering about the last couple of years, on both occassions our initial winter prospects issued in mid October hinted at a colder than average winter, and this was maintained in the final winter forecasts. The winters did both end up colder than average. See our homepage and press release for more info.
A hat trick of cold winters for the UK?
In Britain between 1991 and 2007 most winters were mild, but the last two years have brought a change, with 2009/10 bringing the coldest conditions since 1979 to many parts of the country. So a cold winter this year would mean the third in succession. Is it likely? As ever, long range forecasting is about identifying broad patterns and trends, and given this TheWeatherOutlook view is that a colder than average conditions are likely this winter. However, the pattern which develops may be different this time, with the cold tending to come more from the east or south east rather than the north east. In this scenario the heaviest snow often occurs in the boundary zone between the cold dry air from the east, and the mild and moist air trying to push in from the Atlantic, but the cold can be most persistent in eastern regions. Our full and final winter forecast will be issued in late November
Hi - I was going to look at it but couldnt find how to get there :)
My own personal forcast goes something like.
Nov - Bit colder, some fogs but with a chance of frosts
Dec-Jan could be cold with maybe some frost and snow and a northerly wind (January brings the snow)
Feb - Wetter but a bit milder (February Filldyke)
March - quite windy (March winds)
April - Showery (April showers)
May - getting warmer with sunny spells (May flowers)
June - could be quite hot sunny spells later in the month (Flaming June) ;D ;D
But I live in the Midlands ;D
All the best
Sue
Dark Brown Eggs
By the way that forecast runs for the next 20 years ;D
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I remember when I was at school in the late 60's it was all about the ice age we were supposed to be going into,now its all about global warming....guess someones going to be 50% right!