[Anke]

With any luck, "they"ll produce a vaccine for the commercial flocks before too long.  As there are flu vaccines for humans, it must surely be possible?

Probably possible, but almost certainly totally un-economic for smaller flocks... I sure I really do not want to start injecting my chickens as well as everything else...

[Black Sheep]

Mmm, a bit like human 'flu I'd guess.  You wouldn't know which strain was going to prevail until it had already hit.

With human flu vaccines there is monitoring of the strains of flu circulating in each hemisphere during their "season". This informs the development of the vaccine (i.e. which strains to cover) for the other hemisphere. Most of the time this is reasonably accurate as you can make predictions about the drift of strains. Where we have more problem is if there is a sudden shift in strain and this is often seen when we have pandemic outbreaks - like Spanish flu after WW1.

So not perfect but makes a significant difference in most years.

[harmony]

Based on migrating birds making those long inter-Continental  journeys  we may have to live with H5Nsomething on a regular basis now it's been identified and is a threat to commercial flocks.

Birds have always migrated and we have had various strains of bird flu before. What we need to know is why it is so prevalent at the moment across the globe.

[Marches Farmer]

But is it?  If avian 'flu hadn't been identified in two turkey farms each with thousands of birds all that would have happened is that a few wild water fowl would have been found dead (and presumably would have been eaten by the local foxes and badgers if they hadn't been picked up by humans) and a handful of small, domestic flocks scattered around the country had been struck by some mysterious illness and died.  No-one would have taken any notice.

[Eve]

True, Marches Farmer, and that's exactly what it's all about: the farms. At one point that disease from the wild, that only caused some mysterious ilness in a few backyard flocks or wild birds, turns up in a commercial unit with the stocking densities and distribution et cetera that comes with the modern food supply chain, and causes great economic loss. But oops, says Defra, we have a pampered country to feed.

It's all about our food supply and providing the nation with protein at a certain (read: low) price level, and this involves commercial stocking densities. This might change again in future but in the meantime 60m people need (some) protein. I'm hoping long term things will change towards sustainability rather than cost... I realise I'm an optimist. In the current outbreak it's so far only two turkey farms that have suffered unless I missed something on the news, and even if I did, if it stays at that this winter we would seem to have come off lightly compared to the continent.

A good argument against mega dairies, all this. Not meaning to open another can of worms, btw  

[harmony]

But is it?  If avian 'flu hadn't been identified in two turkey farms each with thousands of birds all that would have happened is that a few wild water fowl would have been found dead (and presumably would have been eaten by the local foxes and badgers if they hadn't been picked up by humans) and a handful of small, domestic flocks scattered around the country had been struck by some mysterious illness and died.  No-one would have taken any notice.

Maybe I am not following you MF but there has been avian flu outbreaks in this country before. We have also had this particular strain. Before they was only protection zones around the outbreak and they were lifted after about month. What seems to make the difference this time is the number of cases popping up in Europe and further afield.


You maybe quite right that this will become an annual problem on a larger scale rather than sporadic outbreaks every couple of years. 


I made the point about the disease being picked up in the wild bird deaths because people are now looking for dead wild birds a few pages back but ColinS says the testing/monitoring has always taken place.

[harmony]

True, Marches Farmer, and that's exactly what it's all about: the farms. At one point that disease from the wild, that only caused some mysterious ilness in a few backyard flocks or wild birds, turns up in a commercial unit with the stocking densities and distribution et cetera that comes with the modern food supply chain, and causes great economic loss. But oops, says Defra, we have a pampered country to feed.




It's all about our food supply and providing the nation with protein at a certain (read: low) price level, and this involves commercial stocking densities. This might change again in future but in the meantime 60m people need (some) protein. I'm hoping long term things will change towards sustainability rather than cost... I realise I'm an optimist. In the current outbreak it's so far only two turkey farms that have suffered unless I missed something on the news, and even if I did, if it stays at that this winter we would seem to have come off lightly compared to the continent.
A good argument against mega dairies, all this. Not meaning to open another can of worms, btw

I wonder how many small backyard flocks may have missed that they had bird flu. A lot of small keepers wouldn't go to the vet for a chicken. How many backyard flocks are even not aware of bird flu?

It is so easy to say that farming has got too big and intensive and it shouldn't be and to blame Defra and the Government but it is the consumer who has to be educated if you want change. To make that change to the masses is an enormous task. Yes, a percentage are interested in where their food comes from and how it is produced and are prepared to/can afford to pay more for it but a huge amount of people can not afford the difference in cost.

[Womble]

A lot of small keepers wouldn't go to the vet for a chicken.

No, nor would I, unless I already knew what the problem was and just needed a prescription. Also, a lot of vets wouldn't know what one was if you did! 

My sister is a vet, and whilst she knows an awful lot about cats and dogs, she usually phones me if she is faced with anything feathered. Her initial training didn't cover much to do with poultry, and she hardly ever sees birds in her practice. Likewise, our farm vets don't know much about them either, which is hardly surprising (I don't think there are any commercial poultry farms nearby).

[Penninehillbilly]

To come from another angle,
Something I've wondered about for a few years, we seem to be getting so many diseases,  animal and bird, where are they coming from?  Could they be being developed by a country to destabilise economies? 
Have I been watching too many James Bond movies?  :-)

[ColinS]

Also, a lot of vets wouldn't know what one was if you did!

As for geese, our vet didn't even have them on their computer system - had to log it down as bird/other

[Eve]

[

It is so easy to say that farming has got too big and intensive and it shouldn't be and to blame Defra

I'm not blaming Defra or the government at all, I merely pointed out that feeding the masses is what Defra's trying to do, that's their responsibility. Just imagine if the government didn't care...   

With regards to growing enough protein for a given population we're actually very successful. The days of rationing or famine are luckily long gone thanks to modern farming. Time to tweak the system now to make it also sustainable rather than more vulnerable.

I don't accept the cost argument for cheap meat, though. But that's for another time, or this thread might run into a hundred pages

Now why do I keep on having trouble with font sizes on here?

[Eve]

Have I been watching too many James Bond movies?  :-)

Yes 


But it's ok, we need cynics and conspiracy theorists to keep us on our toes. 

[harmony]

To come from another angle,
Something I've wondered about for a few years, we seem to be getting so many diseases,  animal and bird, where are they coming from?  Could they be being developed by a country to destabilise economies? 
Have I been watching too many James Bond movies?  :-)

I suppose we had diseases we no longer see and we have new diseases coming along but whether we have the same number, more or less, than we started with is an interesting question.


I once went to a vet talk based around how vets practices had changed in the lifetime of the speaker. Not only did he show how instruments and technology have changed but also how there has been a difference in the types of call they get.


These days we have massive movement of animals through markets and slaughterhouses that are further afield than they used to be and massive movements of people. We also have better diagnosis, less home slaughtering and vets at abattoirs. We can also share information more quickly and we know what is going on the other side of the world.

[Marches Farmer]

The more diagnostic tools you have and the more often you use them the more diseases you find ....?

[Fleecewife]

Back in a time of a previous climate crisis, in the Middle Ages, there were epidemics of 'murrain'.  I'm not sure what it was, probably several things, but it seemed to knock out a large number of farm animals and crops, leading to starvation amongst the population.